Resolves YES if the MISO Indiana Hub day-ahead time-weighted annual average price for calendar year 2028 exceeds US$60/MWh, as reported by MISO and by the Independent Market Monitor (Potomac Economics) in the 2028 State of the Market Report.
Resolution evaluated once on the settlement date against the published figure.
Settlement: 31 May 2029 — about five months after year-end, allowing MISO and the IMM time to publish confirmed calendar-year averages.
Created: 2026-05-04
The forward drivers, project schedules, and strike calibration below reflect public information available on the creation date. Coal-plant retirement dates, transmission and storage commissioning, gas-supply contracts, capacity auctions, and policy interventions in electricity markets have moved repeatedly in both directions over the past several years and are likely to continue moving. The notes below are a starting point, not a forecast — they may be materially out of date within months. Cross-check current operator schedules, ISP/ESOO updates, and exchange forward-curve prices before forming a view.
Recent history — MISO Indiana Hub day-ahead annual average (US$/MWh)
Pre-2022: ~$30 range (post-coal MISO Central typical)
2022: ~$60 (gas/coal volatility)
2023: ~$35
2024: ~$35–40 (per IMM 2024 State of the Market Report — verify exact)
Verify history at:
What could push 2028 higher
Data-centre demand. Duke expects rate of growth to accelerate in 2027 and 2028 with major data-centre customer connections; AEP peak demand projected to roughly double to 8 GW by 2030 (hyperscaler driven). MISO has 25 new projects approved totalling 11.4 GW by August 2028 — but demand may outrun supply.
PJM capacity-auction spillover. PJM 2025/26 cleared $269.92/MW-day (~10× prior year); 2026/27 expected similarly tight. Effect bleeds into MISO via dispatch and arbitrage.
Coal retirements. AEP and Vectren plants in Indiana on the schedule through 2028; gas-fired marginal pricing increasingly sets the clear.
Henry Hub gas prices. Any rebound from 2024 lows directly raises MISO marginal cost.
What could push 2028 lower
Interconnection queue completion. 11.4 GW of new MISO supply approved for August 2028 commissioning; if on time, eases capacity pricing.
Continued solar buildout in MISO Central (Indiana, Ohio, Illinois) — utility-scale project pipeline ~15 GW combined through 2028.
Henry Hub gas remaining structurally low (LNG export capacity expansion notwithstanding).
Mild weather scenarios where peak demand undershoots forecast.
How the US$60/MWh strike was calibrated (as of creation date)
Anchor: 2024 baseline ~$35–40 + structural up-rate from PJM capacity spillover and data-centre demand.
Net of factors: US$60/MWh implies meaningful capacity tightness sustained through 2028. YES would imply that the demand picture (data centres, industrial reshoring) outpaces the supply build.
The strike itself does not move; the demand-supply balance certainly will.
Why this market matters
No major US primary aluminum smelter remains directly in MISO Central, but Alcoa's Warrick rolling mill (Indiana) draws SWIS-equivalent grid power from MISO, and broader US aluminum-product pricing tracks MISO/PJM industrial power costs. Sustained Indiana Hub > US$60/MWh raises industrial passthrough materially.
Forward-curve reference
ICE MISO Indiana Hub Day-Ahead Peak Cal-28 futures
Resolution sources (priority order)
ICE settlement history for MISO Indiana Hub Day-Ahead Peak/Off-Peak
Related markets across the cluster (calendar year 2028)
Upstream supply:
Producers (CY2028):
Electricity hubs (CY2028):
Same market, other calendar year:
1,000