Resolves YES if the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) Victoria region time-weighted annual average wholesale spot price for calendar year 2028 exceeds A$115/MWh, as reported by AEMO in its Quarterly Energy Dynamics Q4 2028 release and the 2028 calendar-year summary on the AEMO data dashboard.
Resolution evaluated once on the settlement date against the published figure.
Settlement: 31 May 2029 — about five months after year-end, allowing AEMO time to publish confirmed calendar-year averages.
Created: 2026-05-04
The forward drivers, project schedules, and strike calibration below reflect public information available on the creation date. Coal-plant retirement dates, transmission and storage commissioning, gas-supply contracts, capacity auctions, and policy interventions in electricity markets have moved repeatedly in both directions over the past several years and are likely to continue moving. The notes below are a starting point, not a forecast — they may be materially out of date within months. Cross-check current operator schedules, ISP/ESOO updates, and exchange forward-curve prices before forming a view.
Recent history — Victoria region annual average (A$/MWh, calendar year)
2022: ~A$93 (gas-crisis spike)
2023: ~A$64
2024: A$101 (AER State of the Energy Market 2024 — volume-weighted)
2025: Q3 A$77, Q4 A$37 — full-year average likely lower than 2024 (AEMO QED Q4 2025)
Verify history and pull more series at:
AER State of the Energy Market annual reports
What could push 2028 higher
Coal retirements. Eraring (2.88 GW, NSW) currently scheduled 19 Aug 2027; Origin announced an extension option to April 2029 in Jan 2026 — schedule remains fluid. Yallourn (1.45 GW, Vic) currently scheduled mid-2028; final-year derating typically lifts prices.
East-coast gas tightness. Bass Strait southern-fields capacity projected to fall ~40% from 1,260 TJ/d in 2024 to 740 TJ/d in 2028. LNG imports starting 2027 (Port Kembla) and 2028 (Geelong) at higher landed cost than legacy Bass Strait supply.
Heatwaves. Demand-side response capacity has grown but peak-day MW growth has not kept pace.
What could push 2028 lower
Renewable buildout. ~3 GW solar + ~1.5 GW wind expected commissioned in Vic/NSW by end-2027 per AEMO ISP 2024 — schedules slip frequently.
Battery storage. ~2 GW / 4 GWh of new BESS expected in NEM by end-2027, suppressing evening-peak pricing.
Snowy 2.0. 2.2 GW pumped hydro targeting first power H2 2027, full commissioning Dec 2028 — currently 67% complete, cost reassessment underway as of late 2025; further slippage cannot be ruled out.
VNI West deferral. ~1.93 GW Vic-NSW interconnector once expected late 2027, now targeted Nov 2030 per Transmission Company Victoria (June 2025 update); no longer a 2028 driver.
Eraring extension (if confirmed) keeps additional baseload online through 2027 — directionally bearish for Vic prices.
How the A$115/MWh strike was calibrated (as of creation date)
Anchor: 2024 actual A$101 + visible decline through 2025.
Forward signal: ASX Energy Vic Base Cal-28 contract is the cleanest market-implied baseline (check current price before trading).
Net of factors: Eraring extension and VNI West deferral both moderate the upside; Yallourn final-year fragility and Bass Strait gas tightness moderate the downside. A$115/MWh sits near the current central expectation.
The strike itself does not move; the median estimate of where 2028 lands almost certainly will.
Alcoa relevance
Alcoa Portland smelter (358 ktpa, Vic) is among the largest single electricity loads in Victoria. Sustained Vic NEM > A$120/MWh has historically challenged Portland unit economics; > A$140/MWh has been associated with curtailment discussions.
Forward-curve reference
ASX Energy Vic Base Cal-28 contract
Resolution sources (priority order)
AEMO Quarterly Energy Dynamics Q4 2028 release
AEMO aggregated price and demand data dashboard — VIC1 region
AEMO Annual State of the Market 2028
AER State of the Energy Market 2028
OpenNEM for independent calculation
Related markets across the cluster (calendar year 2028)
Upstream supply:
Producers (CY2028):
Electricity hubs (CY2028):
Same market, other calendar year:
1,000