This market resolves YES if Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 (January 1 – December 31, 2028) exceeds 3.4 million tonnes.

Settlement is May 31, 2029 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2028 monthly print are well-published before resolution.

Context. Rio Tinto. 2024 actual 3.3 Mt (+1% YoY); Kitimat ramp + NZAS full ownership. The 3.4 Mt strike for 2028 reflects continued post-ramp run-rate; meaningful deviation requires either smelter restarts (Tomago, Bell Bay) or further M&A.

Resolution sources (priority order):

Rio Tinto quarterly production results and annual report https://www.riotinto.com/en/invest/financial-news-performance/quarterly-production-results

Rio Tinto investor presentations https://www.riotinto.com/en/invest/presentations

International Aluminium Institute (IAI) primary aluminum statistics https://international-aluminium.org/statistics/primary-aluminium-production/

Reuters / Bloomberg / Argus aluminum coverage for cross-validation

Related markets across the cluster (calendar year 2028)

Upstream supply:

• Indonesia primary aluminum production

• Indonesia alumina capacity

• China alumina production

• Guinea bauxite exports

Producers (CY2028):

• Alcoa

• Century

• Chalco

• EGA

• Hindalco

• Hongqiao

• Norsk Hydro

• Rusal

• Vedanta

Electricity hubs (CY2028):

• MISO Indiana Hub

• Nord Pool

• OMIE Spain

• Vic NEM

• WA SWIS

Same market, other calendar year:

• Rio Tinto CY2027