This market resolves YES if Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 (January 1 – December 31, 2028) exceeds 0.7 million tonnes.

Settlement is May 31, 2029 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2028 monthly print are well-published before resolution.

Context. Century Aluminum. 2024 actual 0.69 Mt; Inola JV (Century-EGA) first metal targeted late 2028 with ~600 kt/yr nameplate. The 0.7 Mt strike for 2028 reflects steady-state operations; partial-year Inola contribution could push 2028 above this strike, making the probability anchored at or just above 50%.

Resolution sources (priority order):

Century Aluminum 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR) https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000949157

Century Aluminum quarterly earnings releases https://centuryaluminum.com/

International Aluminium Institute (IAI) primary aluminum statistics https://international-aluminium.org/statistics/primary-aluminium-production/

Reuters / Bloomberg / Argus aluminum coverage for cross-validation

Related markets — upstream aluminum supply chain (also live on Manifold):

Guinea bauxite exports for calendar year 2027 → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-guineas-bauxite-exports-for-th

China alumina production for calendar year 2027 → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-chinas-alumina-production-for

Indonesia commissioned alumina refinery capacity (Dec 31, 2027) → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-indonesias-commissioned-alumin

Indonesia primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-indonesias-primary-aluminum-pr

Related markets — other major producers, calendar year 2028:

Alcoa Corporation → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-alcoa-corporations-primary-alu-gtzCg28cEI

Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-chalcos-primary-aluminum-produ-Nl0IyO8Run

Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-emirates-global-aluminium-egas-hy2gyQZ66S

Hindalco Industries → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-hindalco-industriess-primary-a-lChz09NIuE

China Hongqiao Group → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-china-hongqiao-groups-primary-nPu20sIPC8

Norsk Hydro → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-norsk-hydros-primary-aluminum-dddLUEcp0L

Rio Tinto → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-rio-tintos-primary-aluminum-pr-PCtcZhddZU

UC Rusal → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-uc-rusals-primary-aluminum-pro-OSZqIZhZgC

Vedanta Aluminium → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-vedanta-aluminium-vedanta-limi-8p8l0zn0A9

Related markets — same producer, other calendar year:

Century Aluminum primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-century-aluminums-primary-alum