This market resolves YES if China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 (January 1 – December 31, 2028) exceeds 6.4 million tonnes.

Settlement is May 31, 2029 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2028 monthly print are well-published before resolution.

Context. China Hongqiao is the world's largest single primary aluminum producer. 2024 capacity 6.46 Mt; constrained by China's 45 Mt national smelter cap. The 6.4 Mt strike for 2028 reflects the run-rate; absent capacity-cap relaxation in Beijing's 15th Five-Year Plan, sustained output above this level requires utilisation gains rather than new capacity.

Resolution sources (priority order):

China Hongqiao Group annual results announcement (HKEx 1378) http://en.hongqiaochina.com/

China Hongqiao quarterly results presentations and HKEx filings https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0331/2025033101148.pdf

International Aluminium Institute (IAI) primary aluminum statistics https://international-aluminium.org/statistics/primary-aluminium-production/

Reuters / Bloomberg / Argus aluminum coverage for cross-validation

Related markets across the cluster (calendar year 2028)

Upstream supply:

• Indonesia primary aluminum production

• Indonesia alumina capacity

• China alumina production

• Guinea bauxite exports

Producers (CY2028):

• Alcoa

• Century

• Chalco

• EGA

• Hindalco

• Norsk Hydro

• Rio Tinto

• Rusal

• Vedanta

Electricity hubs (CY2028):

• MISO Indiana Hub

• Nord Pool

• OMIE Spain

• Vic NEM

• WA SWIS

Same market, other calendar year:

• Hongqiao CY2027