This market resolves YES if Indonesia's primary aluminum (smelter output) production for calendar year 2027 (January 1 - December 31, 2027) exceeds 1.5 million tonnes.

Settlement is March 31, 2028 — the close pushes ~3 months past year-end so that the December 2027 ESDM monthly output print (which publishes with a ~1-2 month lag) is available before resolution.

Context. Indonesia is one step further down the supply chain from alumina: bauxite -> alumina -> primary aluminum. Domestic primary aluminum capacity comes mostly from Inalum's Kuala Tanjung smelter (~250-300 kt/yr) plus expansion projects under the post-2023 industrial-localisation push. Crossing 1.5 Mt for calendar 2027 would represent a meaningful ramp from the ~250 kt 2023 baseline and would suggest the bauxite-to-smelter strategy is producing real material rather than just intermediate alumina.

Resolution sources (priority order):

Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) monthly output data

International Aluminium Institute (IAI) primary aluminum statistics

CRU / Wood Mackenzie primary aluminum market intelligence

Inalum and other smelter operator quarterly reports

Related markets across the cluster (calendar year 2027)

Upstream supply:

• Indonesia primary aluminum production

• Indonesia alumina capacity

• China alumina production

• Guinea bauxite exports

Producers (CY2027):

• Alcoa

• Century

• Chalco

• EGA

• Hindalco

• Hongqiao

• Norsk Hydro

• Rio Tinto

• Rusal

• Vedanta

Electricity hubs (CY2027):

• MISO Indiana Hub

• Nord Pool

• OMIE Spain

• Vic NEM

• WA SWIS