Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Alcoa Australia's total alumina production in 2026 exceeds 6.0 million metric tons (6,000 kt). Resolution will be based on Alcoa's official 2026 full-year production figures disclosed in earnings reports or investor presentations, available at https://investors.alcoa.com/. The threshold is 6,000 kt; production of exactly 6.0 Mt or below resolves NO.

Background

Alcoa's three-refinery operation in Western Australia is the world's biggest single source of alumina, able to supply eight percent of the global market. In September 2025, Alcoa announced the permanent closure of the Kwinana refinery in Australia, which will reduce total Australian alumina capacity. The 6.0 Mt target represents management's baseline production path outlined in their October 2025 Investor Day presentation, with projected increases to 6.4 Mt, 6.8 Mt, 7.2 Mt, and 7.6 Mt in subsequent years through 2030.

Considerations

The Kwinana refinery closure removes a significant production facility from Alcoa's Australian operations, creating execution risk around whether remaining refineries can maintain the 6.0 Mt baseline. Additionally, Alcoa's Huntly Mine expansion, aimed at supplying the Pinjarra alumina refinery until 2045, is undergoing environmental assessment with the EPA targeting a single assessment report by March 2026, which could impact bauxite supply and thus alumina production levels in 2026.