This market resolves YES if Alcoa Corporation's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 (January 1 – December 31, 2028) exceeds 2.6 million tonnes.

Settlement is May 31, 2029 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2028 monthly print are well-published before resolution.

Context. Alcoa's 2024 Aluminum segment shipments came in at 2.5–2.6 Mt with modest expansion underway at Pinjarra (Western Australia) and Alumar (Brazil). The 2.6 Mt strike for 2028 sits at roughly the company's run-rate; under the modest Pinjarra/Alumar ramp, 2028 production could come in slightly above this strike, making this a probability-anchored just above 50%.

Resolution sources (priority order):

Alcoa Corporation Q4 / full-year financial release https://news.alcoa.com/press-releases

Alcoa Corporation 10-K filing (SEC EDGAR) https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001675149

International Aluminium Institute (IAI) primary aluminum statistics https://international-aluminium.org/statistics/primary-aluminium-production/

Reuters / Bloomberg / Argus aluminum coverage for cross-validation

Related markets across the cluster (calendar year 2028)

Upstream supply:

• Indonesia primary aluminum production

• Indonesia alumina capacity

• China alumina production

• Guinea bauxite exports

Producers (CY2028):

• Century

• Chalco

• EGA

• Hindalco

• Hongqiao

• Norsk Hydro

• Rio Tinto

• Rusal

• Vedanta

Electricity hubs (CY2028):

• MISO Indiana Hub

• Nord Pool

• OMIE Spain

• Vic NEM

• WA SWIS

Same market, other calendar year:

• Alcoa CY2027