Resolves YES if the OMIE (Iberian wholesale market) Spain day-ahead time-weighted annual average for calendar year 2028 exceeds €65/MWh, as reported by OMIE in its annual market summary and on the OMIE day-ahead price dashboard.
Resolution evaluated once on the settlement date against the published figure.
Settlement: 31 May 2029 — about five months after year-end, allowing OMIE and Red Eléctrica time to publish confirmed calendar-year averages.
Created: 2026-05-04
The forward drivers, project schedules, and strike calibration below reflect public information available on the creation date. Coal-plant retirement dates, transmission and storage commissioning, gas-supply contracts, capacity auctions, and policy interventions in electricity markets have moved repeatedly in both directions over the past several years and are likely to continue moving. The notes below are a starting point, not a forecast — they may be materially out of date within months. Cross-check current operator schedules, ISP/ESOO updates, and exchange forward-curve prices before forming a view.
Recent history — OMIE Spain annual average (EUR/MWh, calendar year)
2022: ~€167 (gas-crisis spike, Iberian-mechanism cap effective)
2023: ~€100
2024: €76.30 (OMIE official annual)
2025: ~€65 (per Iberian market commentary, full-year average)
Verify history at:
What could push 2028 higher
Almaraz nuclear retirement. Almaraz I (1.0 GW) currently scheduled to retire November 2027; Almaraz II (1.0 GW) October 2028. Combined ~2 GW nuclear loss is ~5% of Spanish demand at peak. Owners (Iberdrola/Endesa/Naturgy) filed Oct 2025 request to extend both to mid-2030; CSN decision pending — outcome materially shifts the 2028 median.
Grid constraints. REE expansion plan (2,500 km new lines, 15 substations) lagging land-acquisition schedule, creating regional-curtailment-driven price uplift through 2027.
Continental coupling. French nuclear availability and German coal-exit pace propagate via Spain–France interconnection.
Drought conditions. Iberian hydro contributes ~13% in normal years; a dry season removes meaningful zero-marginal-cost supply.
What could push 2028 lower
Renewable buildout. 8.7 GW solar added in 2025, 8.85 GW total renewable in 2024. National target 179 GW renewable by 2030. Solar ~50 GW installed; wind ~33 GW. Continued additions push midday/early-afternoon hours toward zero/negative pricing.
Almaraz extension granted. If CSN approves and units operate through mid-2030, removes the 2027/2028 closure premium.
Mild weather with abundant wind in Q4.
Continental gas softening. TTF curve declining further would flatten the Iberian gas-fired marginal price.
How the €65/MWh strike was calibrated (as of creation date)
Anchor: 2025 actual ~€65 + Almaraz uncertainty.
Net of factors: €65/MWh splits the two scenarios (extension granted vs not). YES probability rises meaningfully if Almaraz extension is denied or if a drought emerges.
The strike itself does not move; the policy decision and the renewable / gas trajectory certainly will.
Why this market matters
Spain hosts San Ciprián (Alcoa's primary aluminum smelter near Lugo) — historically a price-taker on Iberian power. The smelter was idled in 2022 due to high power prices and is partially restarting under a long-term hedge with Endesa. Sustained OMIE > €70/MWh tests the hedge economics; > €90/MWh has historically forced Spanish primary aluminum curtailment.
Forward-curve reference
EEX Spanish Power Cal-28 contract
Resolution sources (priority order)
OMIE annual market summary 2028
Energy Aspects / Ember Iberian commentary for cross-check
Related markets across the cluster (calendar year 2028)
Upstream supply:
Producers (CY2028):
Electricity hubs (CY2028):
Same market, other calendar year:
1,000