Resolves YES if the Nord Pool Nordic system price time-weighted annual average for calendar year 2028 exceeds €45/MWh, as reported by Nord Pool in its annual market summary and on the Nord Pool day-ahead price dashboard.
Resolution evaluated once on the settlement date against the published figure.
Settlement: 31 May 2029 — about five months after year-end, allowing Nord Pool time to publish confirmed calendar-year averages.
Created: 2026-05-04
The forward drivers, project schedules, and strike calibration below reflect public information available on the creation date. Coal-plant retirement dates, transmission and storage commissioning, gas-supply contracts, capacity auctions, and policy interventions in electricity markets have moved repeatedly in both directions over the past several years and are likely to continue moving. The notes below are a starting point, not a forecast — they may be materially out of date within months. Cross-check current operator schedules, ISP/ESOO updates, and exchange forward-curve prices before forming a view.
Recent history — Nordic system price annual average (EUR/MWh, calendar year)
2022: ~€136 (gas-crisis spike)
2023: ~€56
2024: €36.06 (Nord Pool annual report)
2025: €39.7 (Nord Pool, full year)
2026 forward: ~€58 (Nasdaq Commodities Cal-26 quoted late Jan 2026)
Verify history and forward levels at:
What could push 2028 higher
Hydro reservoir conditions. Nordic hydro is the swing producer. Q4 2025 reservoir balance was ~6 TWh above LT average, but the picture changes seasonally; a dry winter or low spring runoff lifts prices sharply.
Demand growth. Industrial electrification (steel, hydrogen), growing Nordic data-centre footprint, and grid-side investment all push system demand up steadily.
Olkiluoto 3 outage risk. Any extended unplanned outage on Europe's largest reactor (1.6 GW, Finland) adds €5–17/MWh to Nordic quarter contracts (per Volt Power Analytics Q4 2024 / Q1 2025 scenarios).
Continental coupling. Gas-led pricing in Germany and the Netherlands flows into NO2/SE4 via NorNed and Baltic links during low-hydro periods.
What could push 2028 lower
Reservoir over-fill. A wet hydrological year drives Nordic prices well below long-term average — historically the dominant downside.
Wind buildout. Continued additions in Sweden (SE3/SE4) and Finland suppress prices during windy periods; nameplate ~3–5 GW of new onshore wind expected through 2028.
Forsmark / Ringhals lifetime extensions to 80 years (Vattenfall confirmed 2024) keep ~7 GW Swedish nuclear in operation through 2028 and well beyond.
Gas-price normalisation. A soft TTF curve removes the 2022-style crisis tail from Nordic pricing.
How the €45/MWh strike was calibrated (as of creation date)
Anchor: 2025 actual €39.7 + Cal-26 forward at €58. Trajectory is clearly up from the 2024 low.
Net of factors: €45/MWh sits between the 2025 spot and the 2026 forward — a YES bet implies the structural up-rate in the forward curve is sustained or accelerated through 2028.
The strike itself does not move; the underlying drivers (hydro, wind buildout, demand growth) certainly will.
Why this market matters
Norwegian aluminum smelters (Hydro Sunndal, Karmøy, Husnes) and Swedish processors are price-takers on Nordic hub power. Sustained Nordic > €50/MWh erodes margin against alumina-converter peers; > €70/MWh is historically associated with curtailment discussions in Nordic primary aluminum.
Forward-curve reference
Nasdaq Commodities Nordic system price Cal-28
Resolution sources (priority order)
Nord Pool annual market report (2028 edition)
Nordic energy regulators' joint annual review
Related markets across the cluster (calendar year 2028)
Upstream supply:
Producers (CY2028):
Electricity hubs (CY2028):
Same market, other calendar year:
1,000