This market resolves YES if Guinea's bauxite exports for calendar year 2027 (January 1 - December 31, 2027) exceed 140 million tonnes.

Settlement is March 31, 2028 — the close pushes ~3 months past year-end so that the December 2027 monthly customs print (which publishes with a ~2-month lag) is available before resolution.

Context. Guinea is the world's largest bauxite exporter, supplying roughly 60% of China's bauxite imports. Annual export volume has roughly doubled since 2017 with capacity expansions at Boké province operations (CBG, SMB, GAC) and the Boffa concessions. Crossing 140 Mt for calendar 2027 would require sustained ramp from the ~90 Mt 2023 baseline.

Resolution sources (priority order):

1. Guinea Ministry of Mines and Geology bilateral export statistics

2. International Aluminium Institute (IAI) bauxite trade data

3. CRU Group / Wood Mackenzie bauxite market intelligence

4. Ship-tracking data (Kpler) for Guinea-origin bauxite cargoes