Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, a civil war occurs in the United States. For the purposes of this market, a civil war is defined as a large-scale armed conflict between organized groups within the country, resulting in significant casualties and disruption of governmental functions. The primary source for resolution will be official reports from the U.S. Department of Defense and the U.S. Department of State. In the absence of such reports, credible coverage from major news organizations such as Reuters, Associated Press, and BBC News will be considered.

Background

Recent years have seen increasing political polarization and discussions about the potential for civil unrest in the United States. Surveys have indicated varying public perceptions regarding the likelihood of a civil war. For instance, a 2024 survey found that approximately 47% of Americans believed a civil war was likely in their lifetime. (statista.com) Additionally, political analysts and experts have expressed concerns about rising tensions and the potential for conflict. (elpais.com)

Considerations

While public opinion and expert analyses highlight concerns about potential conflict, it's important to note that such discussions are speculative. The definition of "civil war" can vary, and not all forms of political violence or unrest meet the criteria for a civil war as defined in this market. Traders should consider the specific resolution criteria and rely on official and credible sources when evaluating the likelihood of this event.