Will there be a civil war in the US in the next 20 years?

1kṀ9724

2043

19%

chance

ALL

Civil war: more of 25% of the US by area is not functionally governed by the US government.

Resolves in 2043 or whenever the civil war occurred.

US Politics

United States

US Civil War

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will there be a civil war in the United States before 2030?

15% chance

The chances of US civil war this year?

5% chance

Will There be a Civil War or Violent Revolution in USA by 2030?

18% chance

Will the USA have another civil war before the end of the decade?

8% chance

When will there be a civil war in the USA?

Will there be a violent revolution or Civil war in America by 2100?

59% chance

Will the US will have a Civil War by the end of 2028?

9% chance

Will >30,000 people die in a US civil war before 2043?

16% chance

Will any of the following Western countries have a civil war by 2030?

18% chance

If there is a civil war in America starting before 2030, who will win?

5 Comments

35 Holders

116 Trades

Sort by:

Can you be more explicit about the resolution criteria? What is functionally governed? Maybe give a few examples of edge cases and tell us how you would resolve them, that might help with intuition.

“Functionality governed” what about reservations? Maritime zones?

predictedNO

@spider thoughts?

reposted

A few Republican states are using their own forces instead of federal ones to guard border with Mexico, violating commands

I would not be surprised if there was an insurgence of some sort after republicans win the 2040 election. 25% of the US by area is a lot though.

People are also trading

Will there be a civil war in the United States before 2030?

15% chance

The chances of US civil war this year?

5% chance

Will There be a Civil War or Violent Revolution in USA by 2030?

18% chance

Will the USA have another civil war before the end of the decade?

8% chance

When will there be a civil war in the USA?

Will there be a violent revolution or Civil war in America by 2100?

59% chance

Will the US will have a Civil War by the end of 2028?

9% chance

Will >30,000 people die in a US civil war before 2043?

16% chance

Will any of the following Western countries have a civil war by 2030?

18% chance

If there is a civil war in America starting before 2030, who will win?

People are also trading

People are also trading

Related questions