Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?
12
10kṀ14472026
48%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:
I will resolve based on the Metaculus resolution:
This question will resolve as Yes if, according to credible sources, either a new armed conflict or a substantial escalation of a previous conflict has resulted in at least 5,000 deaths within the calendar year 2025.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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