Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?
16
748
2035
27%
chance

As of 2023, global conflict hotspots include areas such as Taiwan due to China's aggression, Ukraine due to escalating conflict, Russia due to growing civil unrest, and regions involving North Korea, Israel, and Iran due to their respective nuclear programs. Additionally, migration surges to the U.S. from Central America and Mexico due to increased violence and acute weather events have heightened tensions. The potential for these conflicts to escalate into war with substantial casualties is a pressing concern for global security​.

Before January 1st, 2035, will a war occur anywhere in the world that results in the death of over one million people within one year?

Resolution Criteria:

This question will resolve positively if, before January 1st, 2035, credible sources confirm that a war has occurred in any region of the world resulting in the death of over one million people within one year. This includes both direct deaths (e.g., combatants and non-combatants killed in the course of the war) and indirect deaths (e.g., fatalities due to war-related famine, disease, or other conditions).

Credible sources can include, but are not limited to, international organizations such as the United Nations, World Health Organization, International Red Cross, or reputable media outlets. Reports from these sources must provide a reasonable estimate of the number of deaths, substantiating that the count has exceeded one million.

If no such war has occurred by January 1st, 2035, or if a war has occurred but the death toll is confirmed to be less than one million, the question will resolve negatively.

In case of conflicting reports, the median of the most reliable estimates will be used. The question will resolve as N/A if there is no substantial evidence available to assess the question by the deadline.

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Syria has already passed 1mm I believe, or is very close.

@BTE within one year? The question actually was edited to include this specifically

@LeonardoKroger Yes I just read that. Should be in the question too. Kinda buried. I don’t think this has happened since WWII. Though several wars since then have had more than a million fatalities (Iran-Iraq war springs to mind).

@BTE a bet on WWIII...I'll put my money where my optimistic mouth is haha

@BTE The last war that has passed over 1M in total is the Second Congo War from 1998-2003. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_by_death_toll

predicts YES

@ErwinRossen Not in one year though

@BTE Nope, hence the "in total". The point was that the war in Syria did not pass 1M fatalities yet in 12 years time accumulated.

predicts YES

@ErwinRossen 610,000+ does not rule out 1mm.

predicts YES

I see widely varying figures on the number of civilians killed. Doesn’t appear to be easy to do more than broadly estimate.

@BTE Yes, you are right there. I took the number too much at face value.