For the purposes of this market, a U.S. Civil War is defined as the following:

• Sustained armed conflict: There must be sustained combat or warfare involving at least 500 casualties (fatalities and injuries combined) among U.S. citizens or residents. The conflict must take place on U.S. soil.
  

• Organized factions: The armed conflict must involve at least two organized groups or militias, with at least one faction declaring opposition to the current U.S. federal government, or opposing the recognized governance of at least three states.
  

• Declared intent to overthrow or disrupt: At least one faction must publicly declare its intent to overthrow or replace the U.S. federal government, or force the secession of multiple states (minimum of three), or otherwise disrupt the national governance structure (e.g., through regional independence).
  

• Geographical scope: The conflict must involve violent clashes in at least three states or territories within the U.S. (including federal districts).
  

• Government response: The U.S. federal government must officially recognize the conflict as an internal civil conflict or invoke martial law in response to the conflict.
  

• Timeframe: This conflict must begin before January 1st, 2027.
  

This market will resolve to YES if, by January 1st, 2027, a conflict that meets all of the above criteria occurs and is publicly recognized as a civil war either by the U.S. government or by three major international news agencies (such as Reuters, BBC, or The Associated Press). It will resolve to NO otherwise.

feel free to comment news or questions!

(by 2028 market here)