Will there be a civil war in the United States before 2030?

Question

"Civil War" means any large scale military action taken by some part of the country against come other part of the country. This could be military vs. civilian, military vs. military, or civilian vs. civilian. Actual violence must be involved, not just threats. "Large scale" means that it takes place in more than one city and each side has the support of a significant fraction of the country. It must be an attempt to conquer territory or people, not just riots. It's an "I know it when I see it" kind of thing. I won't bet.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 8% chance (192 traders, as of May 4, 2026).