What should we do with M60,000? [Futarchy]

750Ṁ2030

Oct 15

50%

Claude plays manifold markets.

Resolved

N/A

distribute to YES holders on this answer, proportional to shares

Resolved

N/A

Split it between @realDonaldTrump and @Geofry

Resolved

N/A

Make a Manifold Black Market

Resolved

N/A

Send it to @Tumbles

Resolved

N/A

Send it to @121 :3

Resolved

N/A

Ask the discord

Resolved

N/A

60K mana was insufficiently motivating. Bet whole prize on coin flip 4 times, then run Million Mana Challenge

Resolved

N/A

Put all of it on NO in the next binary market with >50k liquidity

Resolved

N/A

Make "What will happen today?" markets

Resolved

N/A

Coin flip

Resolved

N/A

Invest it in RISK

Resolved

N/A

Weekly Mini-Challenges (Same challenges from the original @ManifoldChallenge, except on a weekly individual basis.)

Resolved

N/A

Start a new Manifold EA forum where we create markets to predict the future of humanity.

Resolved

N/A

Issue Manifold awards (best market, best trade, best trader, best market creator etc.)

Resolved

N/A

Crane Tank [Read Description]

Resolved

N/A

Make a Manifold Government

Resolved

N/A

Make Manifold TV

Resolved

N/A

Make a new Manifold/prediction market platform

Resolved

N/A

Double it repeatedly using sockpuppets and unresolved markets

The Manifold Challenge (/ManifoldChallenge/introducing-the-manifold-challenge) did not get 7 contestants, so we have to figure out what to do with our Ṁ60k! In traditional Manifold fashion, we will decide using futarchy!

In a week:

The market will close.
Whichever option has the highest percentage in a week will be decided as the use for the Ṁ60,000.
All other options will resolve N/A.
A month after the start of the new use for the mana, a poll will be released judging whether it was successful. If the majority of votes are YES, the remaining option will resolve likewise. Otherwise, it will resolve NO.

Ideas that need further description:

Nations of Manifold is a game where we group "citizens" (users) into nations with different political systems and use KPIs to test which system works best, prize is distributed among members of the most successful nations.
Manifold's Got Talent is a game show where people submit videos of their talents and the winner is decided using futarchy
Crane Tank (Manifold Shark Tank) is a program where people can invest in Manifold ideas like high-liquidity markets, game shows, startups, etc.

Update 2025-09-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The option "distribute to YES holders on this answer, proportional to shares" will be resolved N/A to prevent manipulation and is not eligible to win.

Manifold

Get

1,000

to start trading!

19 Comments

34 Holders

153 Trades

Sort by:

when

@121 idk i am working out deals with manifold admin and investors

we'll probably end up trashing this market

Too bad I'm late. I had a good one.

"Manifold pays @RobinHanson to do decentralized analytic philosophy" -

Inject it as liquidity into this market to incentivize @RobinHanson to define a public confidence for particular propositions, so we can operate on them with logical connective structure to create arguments that compell him to confront the contradictions in his beliefs and use cultural pressure to force him to update them. https://manifold.markets/Krantz/what-is-robin-hansons-confidence-in?r=S3JhbnR6

sold Ṁ10 NO

@traders "Claude plays Manifold" was the winner

bought Ṁ10 NO

@realDonaldTrump prompt injectors, start your engines. 60k in prizes!

bought Ṁ50 YES

I dont have the computer skill to do it, but

"Claude plays manifold markets"

A public thing is set up where an AI chat bot is given the 60,000 and asked every day how to allocate some bets based on the trending markets on manifold, to see how a chat bot compares to human traders.