Manifold Bingo 2026
β οΈ ALPHA TEST - This game is in early testing. We may resolve all cards N/A if critical bugs are discovered. Play at your own risk!
Buy a personalized bingo card of Manifold markets!
How to Play
Add an answer with your @handle (e.g., "@yourname" or "@yourname-2" for a second card)
Reply to your answer with customization (optional):
free: market-slug-for-free-space topics: AI, crypto, politics include: specific-market-to-includePlace a limit order (25-60% probability, M$100-500) to buy your card
Bot fills your order and generates your card
View your card at: https://evand.github.io/manifold-bingo-2026/
Timing
Card generation: ~1-2 minutes after placing your limit order (if bot is running)
Card viewer update: ~2-3 minutes after card generation (GitHub Pages deployment)
If bot is not running, cards will be generated when it restarts
Pricing & House Edge
Cards are generated with a ~5% house edge. This means if you buy at 50%, your card will have approximately 45% win probability. The edge covers bot operation costs and provides a buffer for probability estimation.
Resolution Rules
Your card resolves YES if any row, column, or diagonal completes (all 5 markets resolve YES)
Your card resolves NO if all 12 lines are blocked (each line has at least one market that resolved NO)
Cards remain active until one of these conditions is met
Card Details
5x5 grid (25 markets total)
Free space in center (high probability market)
12 winning lines: 5 rows + 5 columns + 2 diagonals
Customization Limits
Max 4 specific markets you can request via
include:Max 4 topics you can request via
topics:(2-4 markets per topic, up to ~16 total)Remaining slots filled with random eligible markets to hit target probability
Rerolling Markets
Don't like some markets on your card? Within 24 hours of purchase, you can request replacements:
Reply to the bot's card details comment (not the answer) with:
reroll: market-slug-to-replace ban: keywordreroll:replaces a specific market by slugban:replaces all markets matching a keyword (in title, slug, or topics)Bot will reply confirming the changes and updated win probability
Max 12 markets can be rerolled (half the card)
Market Eligibility
Markets on your card are selected from Manifold markets that meet these criteria:
Binary outcome type (YES/NO markets only)
Ranked (quality-filtered by Manifold)
20+ unique traders (ensures liquidity and interest)
Closes between 1 week from now and January 7, 2027
Trading
Trade your card position anytime on Manifold! The market price reflects the community's estimate of your card's win probability.
Links
Card Viewer: https://evand.github.io/manifold-bingo-2026/
Questions/Bugs: Comment below or DM @evandaniel
Good luck! π²
1,000People are also trading
Bingo Card Jack1-008
Win Probability at Generation: 55.0% Purchase Price: 60.0%
Resolution Criteria:
YES: Any row, column, or diagonal has all 5 markets resolve YES
NO: Every line is blocked (has at least one NO)
N/A and cancelled markets count as NO
Markets on this card: 1.1. will-the-supreme-court-overrule-hum 1.2. will-kendu-inu-reach-100b-mc-in-nex 1.3. will-lukashenko-still-be-the-presid-f8b990c08892 1.4. will-bethesda-publicly-release-the 1.5. will-an-ai-achieve-80-performance-o 2.1. will-nasas-mission-artemis-iii-find 2.2. will-we-have-an-ai-generated-resear-80b9af6cfd09 2.3. will-ai-smart-glasses-be-a-popular 2.4. will-a-monopoly-movie-release-by-en 2.5. will-sam-altman-still-be-ceo-of-ope 3.1. waymo-serves-the-general-public-in 3.2. will-jd-vance-assume-presidential-p 3.3. FREE SPACE - will-us-tariffs-go-up-in-2025-iff-t 3.4. will-tailcalled-think-that-the-shar 3.5. will-cryptocurrency-replace-a-major 4.1. will-tumblr-still-exist-by-end-of-2-823071c2a380 4.2. acx-2026-will-an-ai-model-reach-a-3 4.3. will-deepseekv4-destroy-all-other-m 4.4. will-minecraft-still-be-the-bestsel 4.5. -if-trump-wins-will-the-us-electora 5.1. russian-crewed-aircraft-shot-down-i 5.2. will-the-new-york-times-win-a-lawsu 5.3. will-bibi-still-be-the-prime-minist 5.4. will-openai-employ-more-people-on-8 5.5. will-donald-trump-be-alive-by-31-de
Bingo Card Jack1-007
Win Probability at Generation: 55.2% Purchase Price: 60.0%
Resolution Criteria:
YES: Any row, column, or diagonal has all 5 markets resolve YES
NO: Every line is blocked (has at least one NO)
N/A and cancelled markets count as NO
Markets on this card: 1.1. will-taylor-swift-marry-travis-kelc-b1fcc7dd2207 1.2. russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2026 1.3. will-xcom-be-accessible-in-the-uk-o 1.4. if-trump-is-convicted-in-the-hush-m 1.5. will-democrats-control-both-the-hou-h5pyQIsQOU 2.1. will-astronauts-walk-on-the-moon-be 2.2. will-i-feel-romantic-attraction-for 2.3. will-we-have-end-to-end-ai-generate-3bc444228941 2.4. tesla-buys-xai-by-eoy2026 2.5. will-starship-go-to-the-moon-before-Nl9cPzCplz 3.1. opensource-ai-model-gets-perfect-im 3.2. if-jd-vances-senate-seat-opens-up-w 3.3. FREE SPACE - will-us-tariffs-be-higher-in-2025-t 3.4. will-openai-merge-and-assist-by-end 3.5. will-the-next-justice-to-leave-the 4.1. will-lula-be-a-candidate-for-the-20 4.2. will-there-be-any-simple-textbased 4.3. will-there-be-a-gpt-55 4.4. will-george-rr-martin-die-before-de 4.5. will-a-big-mac-cost-more-than-10-in-f520144387f9 5.1. will-sam-altman-become-more-cautiou 5.2. will-it-become-illegal-to-move-50ky 5.3. will-tailcalled-think-that-the-infr 5.4. will-gta6-release-on-pc-on-the-same 5.5. will-openai-reach-a-valuation-of-60
Bingo Card Jack1-006
Win Probability at Generation: 55.3% Purchase Price: 60.0%
Resolution Criteria:
YES: Any row, column, or diagonal has all 5 markets resolve YES
NO: Every line is blocked (has at least one NO)
N/A and cancelled markets count as NO
Markets on this card: 1.1. will-elon-unveil-a-flying-car-by-th 1.2. will-vivek-ramaswamy-be-the-next-go 1.3. will-luigi-mangione-be-convicted-of-CQRuROP528 1.4. will-2025-be-referred-to-as-the-sta 1.5. trumps-reciprocal-tariffs-found-unl-L6AI0yn5Ns 2.1. did-us-real-median-household-income 2.2. new-england-patriots-in-superbowl-f 2.3. will-two-starships-dock-in-orbit-be-5c7f9f1f2a7f 2.4. will-sp-500-increase-in-2026 2.5. will-people-be-wearing-the-apple-vi-f12d08bf8e25 3.1. will-donald-trump-be-pardoned-befor 3.2. will-there-be-a-manifest-in-june-of 3.3. FREE SPACE - will-the-united-states-become-more-2A0ZyndqAd 3.4. will-the-supreme-court-overrule-hum 3.5. claude-5-released-before-march-31 4.1. will-ukraine-win-the-russoukrainian 4.2. will-valve-release-halflife-3-befor 4.3. is-manifold-monitoring-the-situatio 4.4. will-chatgpt-call-itself-a-chatbot 4.5. will-sbf-be-physically-in-jail-at-t-71a54b744961 5.1. will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd-IluhsuC50P 5.2. will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-1b-29128e7a10e6 5.3. will-kalshi-win-its-lawsuit-against-R6gh0q0Oyc 5.4. will-nigel-farage-become-leader-of 5.5. has-israel-used-recordings-of-cryin
Bingo Card Jack1-005
Win Probability at Generation: 55.0% Purchase Price: 60.0%
Resolution Criteria:
YES: Any row, column, or diagonal has all 5 markets resolve YES
NO: Every line is blocked (has at least one NO)
N/A and cancelled markets count as NO
Markets on this card: 1.1. will-an-ai-system-be-known-to-have-ci7wjtx9hj 1.2. soai7-a-movie-or-short-film-produce 1.3. capital-gains-tax-increase-before-2-7e8d8cbeeaa9 1.4. us-federal-government-announces-del 1.5. will-gukesh-win-the-2026-world-ches 2.1. will-elon-musk-successfully-defeat 2.2. will-apple-vp-of-finance-alex-roman 2.3. will-a-clawdbot-have-been-proven-to 2.4. will-ukraine-win-the-russoukrainian 2.5. will-openai-display-ads-to-free-tie 3.1. will-asteroid-2024-yr4-have-an-esti 3.2. will-any-model-pass-an-undergrad-pr 3.3. FREE SPACE - new-england-patriots-in-superbowl-f 3.4. will-deepseekv4-destroy-all-other-m 3.5. if-trump-wins-will-marijuana-be-fed 4.1. ukraine-conducts-another-trojanstyl 4.2. will-artemis-ii-launch-before-2027 4.3. will-costcos-in-us-raise-the-price-19039ae96bcc 4.4. ice-kills-another-us-citizen-by-end 4.5. will-ai-smart-glasses-be-a-popular 5.1. will-the-united-states-become-more-2A0ZyndqAd 5.2. will-donald-trump-or-maga-be-satiri 5.3. will-i-kiss-someone-on-the-lips-bef 5.4. will-openai-release-a-model-named-g 5.5. will-lula-finish-his-term-as-presid
it worked
I am curious why my rng is so impossibly bad. I rerolled some bad markets, yet there are 7 people with exactly 1 card with probability higher than mine, and they have close buy price to me. I have 11 cards with 55 or 45% win (close to maximum).
This is probabilistically impossible, is it not?
Honestly want someone to explain.
@121 My net worth is 3620 invested-1850 in loan from user=1770 mana, and I have 1620 mana in this market π
90% of my net worth is locked in this market, most of it will be lost with my bad luck
@121 I am also pretty sure it is not my strategy error (for example, the person (Cy) with the first place bingo card only rerolled 1 market with no customization strategy at all)
Bingo Card EvanDaniel-002
Win Probability at Generation: 55.0% Purchase Price: 60.0%
Resolution Criteria:
YES: Any row, column, or diagonal has all 5 markets resolve YES
NO: Every line is blocked (has at least one NO)
N/A and cancelled markets count as NO
Markets on this card: 1.1. will-kompany-coach-bayern-munich-fo 1.2. majority-of-scientists-believe-ther 1.3. will-the-winner-of-the-2026-fifa-wo 1.4. will-ww3-happen-before-gta6 1.5. will-twitter-x-shut-down-before-202 2.1. will-ai-porn-videos-be-better-than 2.2. will-the-official-claudeplayspokemo 2.3. will-apple-vp-of-finance-alex-roman 2.4. will-afc-team-beat-the-nfc-team-sup 2.5. will-ai-write-75-of-social-media-vi 3.1. if-i-livestream-a-game-of-chess-wit 3.2. ai-2027-reports-predictions-borne-o 3.3. FREE SPACE - will-us-tariffs-be-higher-in-2025-t 3.4. will-tyler-robinson-be-alive-on-dec 3.5. will-a-critically-acclaimed-video-g-9a7eb9a3597a 4.1. will-llms-become-a-ubiquitous-part 4.2. will-there-be-a-large-volcanic-expl 4.3. will-gta-6-take-up-more-than-200gb 4.4. grok-adds-terminate-conversation-bu 4.5. will-the-nintendo-switch-2-be-hacke 5.1. will-charles-iii-remain-the-king-fo-22QqlIgU2q 5.2. will-chat-gpt-6-release-before-the 5.3. in-be-as-good-as-your-word-is-iomed 5.4. will-the-russoukrainian-war-end-wit 5.5. will-a-major-ai-lab-announce-that-t
@Jack1 I think that in all cases, there isn't a limit order for it to fill. They should still be live, if you add a limit order of M100-M500 it should notice it, fill it, and create the card.
@NivlacM markets can also be negatively correlated, so you really need a row with a related event AND framing. Directionally it probably helps, but itβs pretty minor imo.
Iβm guessing the markets here are more likely to be overpriced than underpriced, so overall the botβs odds should start off solidly ahead (combined with the 5% edge, AND that all N/As or percent resolves count as NOs). However, Evan is allowing a reasonable amount of adversarial selection here, as people can choose to include Markets every think are underpriced, or reroll bad ones, or etc. so imo if Evanβs bot ends up with a loss, itβll be due to that adversarial selection, not correlations
@Ziddletwix Picking your own markets is cheating, plain and simple. We only allow 20% completely random markets in the Super Bingo League (SBL).
@NivlacM My hope is that there's errors both ways, but that they aren't a big deal. Correlation is definitely a real thing I'm ignoring. I'm hoping it's hard to exploit because of the randomness, and that on average the approximation is roughly correct. It does a monte carlo sim of the whole card assuming independence, so the natural correlation structure of the card itself is accounted for. I'm hopeful that if people think markets are wrong they will... bet on them instead of trying to exploit the bot. Hopefully it's all in good fun, but if your idea of fun is exploiting the bot for a couple hundred mana then please at least leave me a writeup so I can have fun reading it :)
@NivlacM Thank you! It looks like it's highlighting properly but showing last trade price instead of 100%. Is that what you mean, or are there other bugs as well?
Bingo Card 121-015
Win Probability at Generation: 54.9% Purchase Price: 60.0%
Resolution Criteria:
YES: Any row, column, or diagonal has all 5 markets resolve YES
NO: Every line is blocked (has at least one NO)
N/A and cancelled markets count as NO
Markets on this card: 1.1. will-donald-trump-die-before-joe-bi 1.2. will-starship-make-orbit-on-first-a 1.3. will-trump-interfere-with-greenland 1.4. is-hamas-using-alshifa-hospital-as 1.5. will-eliezer-and-gretta-still-be-re 2.1. will-givewell-fund-hpv-vaccination 2.2. will-xi-jinping-cease-to-be-chinas 2.3. will-this-yudkowsky-tweet-hold-up 2.4. ai-to-pass-sparse-adversarial-pertu 2.5. will-the-gaza-death-toll-be-over-15 3.1. across-2025-a-majority-of-ea-fundin 3.2. will-ice-use-85-of-its-30-billion-b 3.3. FREE SPACE - will-any-2026-fifa-world-cup-matche 3.4. will-lukashenko-still-be-the-presid-f8b990c08892 3.5. acx-2026-will-donald-trump-cease-to 4.1. will-chatgpt-call-itself-a-chatbot 4.2. by-2026-john-wentworth-still-believ 4.3. will-gta6-release-on-pc-on-the-same 4.4. will-sam-altman-still-be-ceo-of-ope 4.5. will-putin-die-within-the-cinese-ye 5.1. is-kaido-dead 5.2. will-italy-qualify-for-the-2026-fif 5.3. will-5-of-an-ftx-grant-be-clawed-ba 5.4. will-there-be-an-ai-smartphone-brou 5.5. will-valve-release-halflife-3-befor
@Evansbot reroll: is-kaido-dead, will-chatgpt-call-itself-a-chatbot, will-donald-trump-die-before-joe-bi, acx-2026-will-donald-trump-cease-to, will-xi-jinping-cease-to-be-chinas, will-trump-interfere-with-greenland