Manifold Bingo 2026
⚠️ ALPHA TEST - This game is in early testing. We may resolve all cards N/A if critical bugs are discovered. Play at your own risk!
Buy a personalized bingo card of Manifold markets!
How to Play
Add an answer with your @handle (e.g., "@yourname" or "@yourname-2" for a second card)
Reply to your answer with customization (optional):
free: market-slug-for-free-space topics: AI, crypto, politics include: specific-market-to-includePlace a limit order (25-60% probability, M$100-500) to buy your card
Bot fills your order and generates your card
View your card at: https://evand.github.io/manifold-bingo-2026/
Timing
Card generation: ~1-2 minutes after placing your limit order (if bot is running)
Card viewer update: ~2-3 minutes after card generation (GitHub Pages deployment)
If bot is not running, cards will be generated when it restarts
Pricing & House Edge
Cards are generated with a ~5% house edge. This means if you buy at 50%, your card will have approximately 45% win probability. The edge covers bot operation costs and provides a buffer for probability estimation.
Resolution Rules
Your card resolves YES if any row, column, or diagonal completes (all 5 markets resolve YES)
Your card resolves NO if all 12 lines are blocked (each line has at least one market that resolved NO)
Cards remain active until one of these conditions is met
Card Details
5x5 grid (25 markets total)
Free space in center (high probability market)
12 winning lines: 5 rows + 5 columns + 2 diagonals
Customization Limits
Max 4 specific markets you can request via
include:Max 4 topics you can request via
topics:(2-4 markets per topic, up to ~16 total)Remaining slots filled with random eligible markets to hit target probability
Market Eligibility
Markets on your card are selected from Manifold markets that meet these criteria:
Binary outcome type (YES/NO markets only)
Ranked (quality-filtered by Manifold)
20+ unique traders (ensures liquidity and interest)
Closes between 1 week from now and January 7, 2027
Trading
Trade your card position anytime on Manifold! The market price reflects the community's estimate of your card's win probability.
Links
Card Viewer: https://evand.github.io/manifold-bingo-2026/
Questions/Bugs: Comment below or DM @evandaniel
Good luck! 🎲
1,000People are also trading
Please check my cards @EvanDaniel i have 3 different ones but the link to the card is the same even though they are different %.
Bingo Card Bayesian-001
Win Probability at Generation: 55.0% Purchase Price: 60.0%
Resolution Criteria:
YES: Any row, column, or diagonal has all 5 markets resolve YES
NO: Every line is blocked (has at least one NO)
N/A and cancelled markets count as NO
Markets on this card: 1.1. will-gukesh-win-the-2026-world-ches 1.2. -2026-winner-is-lula-or-whoever-he 1.3. will-gpt5-make-manifold-think-very 1.4. will-russia-experience-widespread-q-6yCqcP2O8I 1.5. will-there-be-a-decentbudget-biopic-cd64df543fd6 2.1. will-the-performance-jump-from-gpt4 2.2. one-battle-after-another-wins-best 2.3. imu-will-be-stronger-than-blackbear 2.4. will-polymarket-launch-a-stablecoin 2.5. by-the-end-of-2028-will-ai-be-able 3.1. on-january-1-2027-a-transformerlike 3.2. -will-america-get-more-woke-in-2026 3.3. FREE SPACE - will-daniel-litt-win-his-25000-bet 3.4. tesla-serves-more-fully-autonomous 3.5. kash-patel-remains-fbi-director-on 4.1. will-the-united-states-become-more-2A0ZyndqAd 4.2. us-acquires-part-of-greenland-in-20 4.3. will-levelsfyis-2026-end-of-year-pa 4.4. will-the-us-government-conduct-mili 4.5. will-there-be-a-terrorist-attack-ag 5.1. will-a-republican-win-the-florida-g 5.2. california-prop-50-map-used-in-2026 5.3. will-governor-kathy-hochul-complete 5.4. i-can-buy-a-dog-poop-picking-up-rob 5.5. bitcoin-falls-below-75000-in-next-6
Bingo Card Jack1-001
Win Probability at Generation: 54.2% Purchase Price: 60.0%
Resolution Criteria:
YES: Any row, column, or diagonal has all 5 markets resolve YES
NO: Every line is blocked (has at least one NO)
N/A and cancelled markets count as NO
Markets on this card: 1.1. pope-leo-xiv-mentions-prediction-ma 1.2. biden-ranked-below-w-bush-in-next-c 1.3. workinprogress-if-either-happens-wi 1.4. will-starlink-ipo-by-the-end-2026 1.5. will-there-be-fresh-fruitvegetables 2.1. will-there-be-a-singleperson-unicor 2.2. will-volodomyr-zelenskyy-be-in-powe 2.3. gta-vi-released-by-may-31-2026 2.4. does-the-one-piece-treasure-binks-s 2.5. will-the-idf-fully-withdraw-from-ga 3.1. will-norway-reach-95-electric-vehic 3.2. if-trump-wins-will-his-approval-rat-1j9mh20fwd 3.3. FREE SPACE - will-daniel-litt-win-his-25000-bet 3.4. should-a-programmer-in-2027-learn-t 3.5. will-congress-pass-sweeping-deregul 4.1. by-2027-will-it-ever-become-media-c 4.2. will-all-previous-champions-of-the 4.3. will-tsla-close-above-1000-per-shar 4.4. will-the-total-user-count-for-ai-ch 4.5. will-the-new-york-times-nyt-achieve 5.1. will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle-round-0sZn5unZc8 5.2. bitcoin-below-80k-in-2026 5.3. will-sam-altman-still-be-ceo-of-ope 5.4. will-there-be-self-driving-taxis-in-5f5ad7fbb169 5.5. will-i-qualify-for-mop-2026
Bingo Card Jack1-001
Win Probability at Generation: 40.0% Purchase Price: 45.1%
Resolution Criteria:
YES: Any row, column, or diagonal has all 5 markets resolve YES
NO: Every line is blocked (has at least one NO)
N/A and cancelled markets count as NO
Markets on this card: 1.1. will-openais-gpt6-release-before-ro 1.2. will-global-approval-of-russia-decl-0aa92b67467e 1.3. will-tesla-provide-an-autonomous-dr 1.4. will-twitter-lose-more-than-100-mil 1.5. will-the-percent-of-pakistanis-in-e 2.1. if-trump-wins-will-he-appoint-anoth 2.2. will-agi-be-achieved-before-ais-are 2.3. will-artificial-superintelligence-e 2.4. will-mark-meadows-change-his-plea-t 2.5. if-the-leftright-culture-war-comes-1cc8384e933c 3.1. 1-anthropic-will-go-public-openai-w 3.2. in-mid-2026-will-an-ai-be-able-to-g 3.3. FREE SPACE - will-daniel-litt-win-his-25000-bet 3.4. russian-attacks-or-invades-latvia-b 3.5. us-acquires-part-of-greenland-in-20 4.1. will-ai-doomers-turn-to-violence-by 4.2. will-as-many-or-more-countries-reco 4.3. will-teslas-first-robotaxi-fare-be-e7f34f1d3c31 4.4. will-a-previous-winner-of-the-world-0c2e4c1fa9ca 4.5. will-epic-vs-google-hold-up-on-appe 5.1. biden-ranked-below-carter-in-next-c 5.2. will-viktor-orban-win-the-2026-elec 5.3. will-chris-hipkins-lead-the-nz-labo 5.4. will-polymarket-get-investigated-by 5.5. will-60-minutes-run-the-postponed-i
@Jack1 include: will-irans-regime-fall-in-2026 will-california-billionaires-have-t democrats-win-alaska-maine-ohio-and
Bingo Card NivlacM-001
Win Probability at Generation: 45.0% Purchase Price: 50.0%
Resolution Criteria:
YES: Any row, column, or diagonal has all 5 markets resolve YES
NO: Every line is blocked (has at least one NO)
N/A and cancelled markets count as NO
Markets on this card: 1.1. will-there-be-5-thought-leaders-tha 1.2. will-republicans-win-the-senate-in-738388924521 1.3. will-germany-recognize-the-state-of-b158182bb5a4 1.4. will-the-catholic-church-train-a-po 1.5. soai2-a-major-ai-lab-leans-back-int 2.1. united-states-recession-by-end-of-q-ZlAq9RlP8n 2.2. us-government-shutdown-by-january-3 2.3. will-there-be-a-gpt-55 2.4. will-the-scottish-labour-party-be-t 2.5. will-the-german-afd-be-part-of-a-ru 3.1. will-we-have-highquality-realtime-a 3.2. will-sonia-sotomayor-still-be-on-th 3.3. FREE SPACE - will-daniel-litt-win-his-25000-bet 3.4. opus-45s-metr-time-horizon-beats-ge 3.5. will-the-united-states-conduct-addi 4.1. will-the-russiaukraine-war-end-befo-NN0qZO8E6t 4.2. will-the-overall-claim-that-low-flo 4.3. will-tesla-tsla-stock-price-be-abov 4.4. if-ben-makes-a-third-puzzle-before 4.5. by-2026-john-wentworth-still-believ 5.1. if-tiktok-is-sold-will-the-algorith 5.2. will-the-united-states-become-more-2A0ZyndqAd 5.3. acx-2026-will-an-ai-model-reach-a-3 5.4. will-kompany-coach-bayern-munich-fo 5.5. will-we-have-end-to-end-ai-generate-3bc444228941
Bingo Card Jack1-001
Win Probability at Generation: 45.1% Purchase Price: 50.0%
Resolution Criteria:
YES: Any row, column, or diagonal has all 5 markets resolve YES
NO: Every line is blocked (has at least one NO)
N/A and cancelled markets count as NO
Markets on this card: 1.1. will-gwern-publish-a-standalone-boo 1.2. trump-wins-nobel-peace-prize-2026 1.3. will-the-performance-jump-from-gpt4 1.4. will-sbf-be-physically-in-jail-at-t-71a54b744961 1.5. will-thailand-and-cambodia-enter-in 2.1. eliezer-yudkowsky-is-impressed-by-a 2.2. is-there-secret-treasure-at-the-gia 2.3. will-there-be-a-one-piece-collabora 2.4. will-ai-be-regularly-used-to-diagno 2.5. will-the-us-enter-a-recession-by-en 3.1. end-of-pretraining-era-for-language 3.2. are-almost-all-women-into-women-wil 3.3. FREE SPACE - will-daniel-litt-win-his-25000-bet 3.4. will-xcom-be-accessible-in-the-uk-o 3.5. will-mrbeast-jimmy-donaldson-be-con 4.1. will-gpt5-be-able-to-get-gold-on-th 4.2. will-jordan-chiless-bronze-medal-be 4.3. will-we-have-an-ai-generated-resear-80b9af6cfd09 4.4. will-elk-still-be-a-major-problem-b 4.5. will-anyone-get-married-due-to-a-ma 5.1. will-the-supreme-court-overrule-hum 5.2. will-i-think-that-the-belief-state 5.3. will-lukashenko-still-be-the-presid-f8b990c08892 5.4. will-there-be-a-trillionaire-by-the 5.5. will-california-decriminalize-psilo
Bingo Card JussiVilleHeiskanen-001
Win Probability at Generation: 55.0% Purchase Price: 60.0%
Resolution Criteria:
YES: Any row, column, or diagonal has all 5 markets resolve YES
NO: Every line is blocked (has at least one NO)
N/A and cancelled markets count as NO
Markets on this card: 1.1. will-there-be-a-manifest-in-june-of 1.2. will-epic-vs-google-hold-up-on-appe 1.3. will-the-next-justice-to-leave-the 1.4. will-i-be-able-to-use-an-llm-to-bru 1.5. will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-by-2030-r 2.1. will-any-model-pass-an-undergrad-pr 2.2. will-the-robinhood-gold-card-still 2.3. will-netanyahu-win-the-next-electio 2.4. if-trump-wins-will-us-co2-emissions 2.5. will-max-verstappen-be-a-red-bull-d 3.1. will-adam-optimizer-no-longer-be-th 3.2. will-the-trump-administration-milit-AlRshOuSpp 3.3. FREE SPACE - will-daniel-litt-win-his-25000-bet 3.4. will-it-be-common-for-nonprogrammer-dfc979ea7fec 3.5. will-princeton-international-studen 4.1. comey-found-guilty-by-the-end-of-20 4.2. will-donald-trump-turn-80 4.3. will-humans-return-to-the-moon-in-2 4.4. will-elon-musk-opensource-grok-3-wi 4.5. will-net-demand-for-graphic-designe 5.1. will-the-flexport-internal-predicti 5.2. will-mitch-mcconnell-complete-his-t 5.3. will-a-quantum-computer-factor-a-6b 5.4. will-anthropics-next-model-release 5.5. will-crowdstrike-pay-more-than-10m
@Evansbot Pretty good. Only one obvious dud, that is about whether something happens by 2030 @EvanDaniel
@Jack1 Some of these aren’t going to work. I got a resolves to poll market on my card (bill clinton sex with trump) can never resolve yes. I’m assuming your bot thinks it has a 23% chance of resolving yes but it actually has 0%
@Jack1 Also I got a market about a plane crash being caused by a ‘dei hire’ that might resolve to prob or be extended until an investigation occurs. I really like this concept, probably just needs a better curations of markets
@Jack1 Good question, going to try to figure that out. Step 1 is trying to filter that out and not make new cards like that, step 2 is I'm probably going to add a reroll feature which would let you curate to taste or deal with problems manually. I do need a ruling eventually on what happens though. Stay tuned. Thanks for the feedback!
@Jack1 include: will-irans-regime-fall-in-2026 will-california-billionaires-have-t democrats-win-alaska-maine-ohio-and
@EvanDaniel Next feature request for the bingo webpage is obviously going to be a variant of the "Hot" filter -- it should show any markets that are in anyone's bingo card which have moved a lot in the last period of time.
Bingo Card Jack1-001
Win Probability at Generation: 29.6% Purchase Price: 35.3%
Resolution Criteria:
YES: Any row, column, or diagonal has all 5 markets resolve YES
NO: Every line is blocked (has at least one NO)
N/A and cancelled markets count as NO
Markets on this card: 1.1. will-spinlaunch-have-a-successful-l-a18a2bd6b7c2 1.2. this-market-has-a-11000-chance-of-r 1.3. will-twitter-still-be-called-x-at-t 1.4. will-elon-musk-be-worth-1t-by-the-e 1.5. will-a-big-mac-cost-more-than-10-in-f520144387f9 2.1. will-k218b-be-generally-agreed-to-h 2.2. khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-i-gyyU8QUd0s 2.3. soai5-a-realtime-generative-video-g 2.4. will-sonia-sotomayor-still-be-on-th 2.5. will-the-dome-of-the-rock-in-jerusa 3.1. is-nicotine-good-for-you 3.2. did-donald-trump-have-sex-with-bill-nqZEQANudn 3.3. FREE SPACE - will-daniel-litt-win-his-25000-bet 3.4. will-twitter-be-profitable-before-2 3.5. comey-found-guilty-by-the-end-of-20 4.1. will-iranians-be-able-to-overthrow 4.2. will-akainu-fight-luffy 4.3. will-the-united-states-become-more-2A0ZyndqAd 4.4. will-russia-control-any-formerly-uk-b073e4d23255 4.5. will-i-regret-taking-a-job-at-opena 5.1. will-there-be-a-wellreviewed-video 5.2. will-superposition-in-transformers 5.3. will-the-nintendo-switch-2-be-softm 5.4. -2026-winner-is-lula-or-whoever-he 5.5. was-the-january-29-2025-midair-coll
@Jack1 I think users would find it easier to paste a URL than a slug.
Also it should hopefully be able to work with % embeds. Even easier.