Leo's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -3.08
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Leo bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
40%
- Will Blake Masters win the Arizona Senate seat?NOṀ50
- Will any other country openly join Russia - Ukraine conflict in March or April 2022?NOṀ20
- Will China fly a record number of military aircraft close to Taiwan, potentially as a response to Nancy Pelosi visiting Taiwan? Specifically, will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in August?NOṀ10
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%