6. Will there be a major flare-up (worse than past 5 years) in Russia/Ukraine conflict in 2022?
ACX 2022 Predictions
42
75
resolved Mar 21
Resolved
YES
From Scott Alexander's US/World predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. Mar 21, 4:08pm: The Manifold team has decided to resolve this early. (If on the off chance, Scott decides the outcome of this question differently, we will reimburse traders.)
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bought Ṁ20 of YES
Do I get the "loan" $20 when the market resolves, or just the dust of profit? Regardless, this market can probably resolve as "YES" now.
bought Ṁ20 of NO
The landlord is back.
sold Ṁ13 of NO
Pulling my NO because there is lobbying for market resolution happening on discord
bought Ṁ1 of NO
Correct, so I am trying to make money from people moving their yes money over to something like that. This market i believe has been manipulated by having a derivative market with high volume. However the risk to a NOer here is this could be early resolved unlike that other market.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/will-11-on-january-1st-2023 pays better interest.
bought Ṁ10 of NO
I am trying to seek rent on exitors
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Well that was sufficiently volatile in the final few seconds that I'm not actually sure what happened.
bought Ṁ500 of YES
Whales versus Snipers, I like this battle.
bought Ṁ8 of NO
y'all are accepting too low interest rates.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Probability seems too low but I don't want to tie up much of my funds correcting it.

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