6. Will there be a major flare-up (worse than past 5 years) in Russia/Ukraine conflict in 2022?
Basic
42
Ṁ28k
resolved Mar 21
Resolved
YES
From Scott Alexander's US/World predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. Mar 21, 4:08pm: The Manifold team has decided to resolve this early. (If on the off chance, Scott decides the outcome of this question differently, we will reimburse traders.)
#ACX 2022 Predictions
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
10 Comments
26 Holders
156 Trades
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Do I get the "loan" $20 when the market resolves, or just the dust of profit? Regardless, this market can probably resolve as "YES" now.
The landlord is back.
Pulling my NO because there is lobbying for market resolution happening on discord
Correct, so I am trying to make money from people moving their yes money over to something like that. This market i believe has been manipulated by having a derivative market with high volume. However the risk to a NOer here is this could be early resolved unlike that other market.
https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/will-11-on-january-1st-2023 pays better interest.
I am trying to seek rent on exitors
Well that was sufficiently volatile in the final few seconds that I'm not actually sure what happened.
Whales versus Snipers, I like this battle.
y'all are accepting too low interest rates.
Probability seems too low but I don't want to tie up much of my funds correcting it.

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