6. Will there be a major flare-up (worse than past 5 years) in Russia/Ukraine conflict in 2022?

Ṁ100Ṁ28k

resolved Mar 21

Resolved

YES

ALL

From Scott Alexander's US/World predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. Mar 21, 4:08pm: The Manifold team has decided to resolve this early. (If on the off chance, Scott decides the outcome of this question differently, we will reimburse traders.)

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Do I get the "loan" $20 when the market resolves, or just the dust of profit? Regardless, this market can probably resolve as "YES" now.

The landlord is back.

Pulling my NO because there is lobbying for market resolution happening on discord

Correct, so I am trying to make money from people moving their yes money over to something like that. This market i believe has been manipulated by having a derivative market with high volume. However the risk to a NOer here is this could be early resolved unlike that other market.