Will Vladimir Putin be removed from Power in 2022?
66
100Ṁ4896
resolved Jan 9
Resolved
NO
This market resolves to Yes if Vladimir Putin is removed from power through an election or by force in the year 2022. A natural death would not count as "removed from power".
Politics
Ukraine-Russia war
Putin Life Insurance
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ208
2Ṁ134
3Ṁ117
4Ṁ107
5Ṁ85

People are also trading

Sort by:

[Admin] Resolving as NO

predictedNO

@BlueBarry this should resolve "no"

I really hope I'm wrong
Arbitrage opportunity: https://manifold.markets/Nostradamnedus/will-putin-be-overthrown-during-202
Closing early is fine, it helps avoid last minute gaming. RESOLVING early on the other hand, if the question is about how something is going to be on a particular date as this author has done, is a Big Problem. They may think the answer is predictable at that point, but ITS PREDICTABILITY IS EXACTLY WHAT'S IN CONTENTION ISN'T IT?!?
Same, other markets by this trader also closed early.
Market closes in 13 days, which is suspicious, exiting.
and back in at 10%
It's unlikely, but 7% is definitely low.
No way there's a 40% chance Putin gets ousted within the year.
Based on the "Rules for Rulers" concept, I think it's likely that he gets tossed out after an internal power struggle because his war is already creating protests and causing problems for oligarchs.
More likely in the next couple years than the last couple decades imo
16:1 payout on this right now, and you never know. I would personally put the odds at around 25% based on current circumstances, but could see them EASILY increase.
This market is way too illiquid.

People are also trading

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy