Will Vladimir Putin be removed from Power in 2022?

Politics•Ukraine-Russia war•Putin Life Insurance

Ṁ4.9K

Ṁ100

resolved Jan 9

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This market resolves to Yes if Vladimir Putin is removed from power through an election or by force in the year 2022. A natural death would not count as "removed from power".

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14 Comments

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114 Trades

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[Admin] Resolving as NO

predicted NO

@BlueBarry this should resolve "no"

bought Ṁ15 of NO

I really hope I'm wrong

bought Ṁ1 of YES

Arbitrage opportunity: https://manifold.markets/Nostradamnedus/will-putin-be-overthrown-during-202

sold Ṁ1 of YES

Closing early is fine, it helps avoid last minute gaming. RESOLVING early on the other hand, if the question is about how something is going to be on a particular date as this author has done, is a Big Problem. They may think the answer is predictable at that point, but ITS PREDICTABILITY IS EXACTLY WHAT'S IN CONTENTION ISN'T IT?!?

sold Ṁ4 of YES

Same, other markets by this trader also closed early.

sold Ṁ5 of YES

Market closes in 13 days, which is suspicious, exiting.

bought Ṁ9 of YES

and back in at 10%

bought Ṁ5 of YES

It's unlikely, but 7% is definitely low.

sold Ṁ4 of YES

No way there's a 40% chance Putin gets ousted within the year.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Based on the "Rules for Rulers" concept, I think it's likely that he gets tossed out after an internal power struggle because his war is already creating protests and causing problems for oligarchs.

bought Ṁ2 of YES

More likely in the next couple years than the last couple decades imo

bought Ṁ1 of YES

16:1 payout on this right now, and you never know. I would personally put the odds at around 25% based on current circumstances, but could see them EASILY increase.