closes
Jan 1, 2023Will Elon Musk buy Twitter this year?
37%
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Resolves YES if an offer to take Twitter private led by Elon Musk succeeds before the end of 2022. (It is not necessary that Musk provide a majority of the capital.)
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Why it is in category "Technology"? That is Economy, Twitter using computers does not make it belong in "Technology" group
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@M Twitter is a tech company in common parlance. *shrug*
Blame society for deciding to lump random internet and social media sites into the broad catagory of "technology", I guess?
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Oh, I see. I needed to click on "Musk Mania". BTW, is there a way to blacklist categories or groups?
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https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/musk-motion-july-15-2022.pdf Musk pushing for a 2023 trial.
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@jbeshir Musk lost on that motion for a later trial date, it's set for October. https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/19/tech/twitter-elon-musk-lawsuit-first-hearing/index.html
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Metaculus is at 19% right now
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10662/will-elon-musk-buy-twitter-in-2022/
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NO was written all over there after that Musk-Parag drama!
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@BTE https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000110465922078413/tm2220599d1_ex99-p.htm
Could you further develop why you think it is a Yes, considering the news you linked to? Truly curious.
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@qwerty As I have said in many other comments on this market, it is NOT up to Elon. He signed a binding agreement with very specific terms that the claims he makes in the filing are not even close to sufficient to get him out of having to close this deal at $54.20. Twitter's board has already said they are going to sue him to enforce the deal. It will not take long for a Delaware judge to rule on this. This is desperate market manipulation by Musk.
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@BTE Without much research on the legal side, but with understanding of the businesses involved and market conditions, I have been personally sure he was going to try to back down since day one. I am probably one of the largest No bettors here or thereabouts. Mainly thinking the process was going to drag out into 2023 in almost every scenario. Where am I mistaken? Why do you think this might be finalized in 2022?
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@qwerty because the shareholders are voting in august or September. There are no regulatory issues, deal has already been cleared. I see no reason it will take 5+ more months. There is little work left to do.
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@BTE The media coverage I am reading on the lawsuit indicates the process is likely to start in September and last for months, taking this beyond 2022.
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Elon Musk’s deal to buy Twitter is in peril
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/07/07/elon-musk-twitter-jeopardy/
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@qwerty All of these stories suggesting Elon has a choice anymore are ridiculous. He is on the hook whether he can get co-investors or verify Twitter's claims because that is how deals work. The only people that can kill the deal now are the shareholders and they would have to be absolute morons to turn down $54.20. In the end, Musk made a huge mistake that is going to cost him $20B+ of personal wealth, everyone else associated with the company WINS, so who cares about Musk losing money??
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@BTE Perhaps, but keep in mind that this market is limited to 2022. There are scenarios where he buys, but after the end date.
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Been a while without news. Not the kinda stuff that happens when the deal is about to break apart, I'm not
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https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1544051155562598401
I don't want to read too much into things, but that is not the tweet of a man who wants to walk away from controlling Twitter, even if he would "only" have $80 billion after the deal.
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Why is the Twitter board still preventing Elon Musk from buying more shares at the market price of $40?
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@AlexPower The only person who benefits from that is Musk because he could use the shares to kill the deal he clearly has buyers remorse over. The real question is why would they allow him to buy shares for $40 when he is already obligated to pay $54.20 for the same shares?
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@BTE Shareholders who might otherwise sell at the market price would benefit from having the most prominent potential buyer not be procedurally forced out of the market. Twitter employees would benefit by having more resolution to this charade.
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@AlexPower What you are suggesting makes absolutely no sense at all. Musk is already committed to pay $54.20 for EVERY SINGLE SHARE and the board has begun the process of allowing the owners of each share to vote to accept or reject that price. Yes the Twitter employees are being manipulated by Musk, but allowing him to buy their shares for $40 absolutely does not benefit the employee in any way. The only beneficiary is Musk. And the suggestion that there isn't a market for selling shares at $40 because Musk is excluded is ridiculous, there are tons of institutional buyers who will pay $40 all day and look like geniuses when they vote those $40 shares to approve the $54.20 deal in 4-6 weeks.
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@BTE people selling Twitter stock ( or declining to buy it) are less able to accept risk or need the liquidity.
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If Musk was willing and able to buy shares then the price would go up due to basic supply and demand and that would be good for sellers and bad for buyers. I guess the board is meant to optimize outcomes for sellers offer buyers but I don't actually know.
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@MartinRandall that has nothing to do with musk being able to buy more shares and everything to do with the huge drop in all tech valuations across the board.
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@MartinRandall so your saying the board should allow Musk to buy as many shares at say $40 ($14.20 less than the price he is already contractually obligated to pay upon approval of the deal by shareholders) so he can then vote against the merger and undermine his existing legal obligation to pay the higher price because some employees or other shareholders are unable to hold the stock and need better liquidity so they don't lose too much??? Do you not see how that would directly undermine the interests of every shareholder who doesn't want to sell and every employee? Your argument might make sense if Twitter's shares weren't traded in liquid markets, but they are, so your argument again serves only one person - Musk. The individual you are advocating for needing emergency liquidity cannot be used as justification for undermining the rights of all other shareholders who are now guaranteed $54.20 as long as they don't cave to Musk's extrajudicial pressure. That makes absolutely zero sense.
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I think it's around 80% that this closes (or at least is generally acknowledged to be certain to close) by the end of September.
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Looking less likely lately: https://www.axios.com/2022/06/06/elon-musk-twitter
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To factor out the timing question, I made a new market for "buys it this year OR NEXT YEAR": https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-the-musk-twitter-deal-close
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I think the main risk here now is that the close date gets extended into 2023.
Article on TechCrunch: "The filing also notes that the deal could be terminated if it doesn’t close by 5 PM PT on October 24, 2022. However, it does lay out a provision to extend the termination date for an additional six months if needed to meet select closing conditions related to antitrust law, foreign investments laws or other governmental actions that could impact the agreement from closing during that time frame."
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Arbitraging with https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-elon-musk-back-out-of-the-deal
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Elon's deal is to take Twitter private at $54.20, and the share price is now $48.64. Doesn't this mean the market thinks there is at most a 90% chance of the deal going through?
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One guess is that he does not have to become CEO even if he completes the purchase. But looking at resolution criteria for that one - it seems sufficiently permissive
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Why such a huge difference between this market and this one? https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-elon-musk-become-ceo-of-twitte
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Hedging on regulatory hurdles (10% of Acquisitions fail on that, arguably it's less likely in this case though)
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Welp, it's about as official as it can get now:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/elon-musk-to-acquire-twitter-301532245.html
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1518677066325053441
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Honestly this is a bit worrying for Manifold, there's a nonzero chance Elon figures out that prediction markets are the way to go and then Twitter eats our lunch.
Elon: want to buy Manifold while you're at it?
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I absolutely love this market. If anyone's curious about the recent spike, see: https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-twitter-set-accept-musks-best-final-offer-sources-2022-04-25/
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Matt Levine's latest post in Money Stuff describes in great detail how Twitter board is mitigating Musks's 51% attack by giving everyone else shares at a 50% discount if any shareholder goes over 15% in ownership. Pretty interesting!
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-04-18/twitter-has-a-poison-pill-now
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