Will Elon Musk buy Twitter this year?
563
563
5.3K
resolved Oct 28
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if an offer to take Twitter private led by Elon Musk succeeds before the end of 2022. (It is not necessary that Musk provide a majority of the capital.)

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predicted NO

Well color me surprised.

bought Ṁ10,000 of YES

Deal just closed: https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/10/27/twitter-elon-musk/ "Elon Musk took control of Twitter late Thursday as his $44 billion deal to takeover the company closed."

predicted YES

@v = ML

❌ hand-coded to trade against you

❌ using admin permissions to cheat

❌ rigging platform to steal from you

Make the platform less sh*tty instead of incenting user slippage and then front-running your own database

bought Ṁ4,000 of YES

https://www.wsj.com/articles/banks-begin-to-fund-13-billion-in-debt-backing-elon-musks-twitter-takeover-11666824554 "Elon Musk’s Twitter Takeover Close at Hand as Banks Begin to Turn Over $13 Billion of Cash"

bought Ṁ10,000 of YES

@v = not bot

predicted NO

@v Making trades sandwiched between @jack's trades 🤔
Very Suspicious!

predicted YES

Before insider-bot:

After:

predicted YES

@v ❤️ users

Bounties offered for taking out --

bought Ṁ30 of YES

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1585341984679469056?s=20&t=DTU8kJX-TfYMj83DMURRDQ

Elon musk enters the Twitter headquarters carrying a sink!

bought Ṁ500 of YES

Regime censors him for daring to criticize their foreign policy follies—and saves him ten billion

Or deal goes through and can no longer control public thought as easily.

As with the hysterical “don’t let him buy it” “force him to buy it” reversal. Two ways to win for Elon, no ways to lose.

bought Ṁ500 of NO
predicted YES

bought Ṁ0 of YES
predicted YES
bought Ṁ1,090 of YES

We're 10 days out from the deadline for the deal to close or else the trial will resume. Made a shorter-term market here:

predicted YES

I see you, @Pepe.

predicted NO

we really ought to show +subsidy in the comments, perhaps with a shiny background if it's a big subsidy

bought Ṁ300 of YES
bought Ṁ20 of NO

melon husk

people were pretty confident it would happen earlier this year too so I think 88% is too high. I'd give it ~70% odds

sold Ṁ369 of YES

Cha ching.

bought Ṁ300 of YES

bought Ṁ100 of NO

The chance that musk weasles out again is being underpriced.

sold Ṁ1,414 of YES

@CalebMoore Looking like a pretty good take right now.

predicted YES

Thanks. These ai things are neat.

Elon musk burning in hell

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