Will Elon Musk buy Twitter this year?
Jan 1, 2023
M$16,927 bet
Resolves YES if an offer to take Twitter private led by Elon Musk succeeds before the end of 2022. (It is not necessary that Musk provide a majority of the capital.)

Bolton Bailey is betting NO at 92% a month ago

Elon's deal is to take Twitter private at $54.20, and the share price is now $48.64. Doesn't this mean the market thinks there is at most a 90% chance of the deal going through?

Vlad Sitalo is betting NO at 95% a month ago

One guess is that he does not have to become CEO even if he completes the purchase. But looking at resolution criteria for that one - it seems sufficiently permissive

Vlad Sitalo bought M$15 of NOa month ago

Hedging on regulatory hurdles (10% of Acquisitions fail on that, arguably it's less likely in this case though)

Austin is betting YES at 87% a month ago

Honestly this is a bit worrying for Manifold, there's a nonzero chance Elon figures out that prediction markets are the way to go and then Twitter eats our lunch. Elon: want to buy Manifold while you're at it?

Isaac Clayton is betting YES at 88% a month ago

I absolutely love this market. If anyone's curious about the recent spike, see: https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-twitter-set-accept-musks-best-final-offer-sources-2022-04-25/

Sinclair Chen bought M$10 of NOa month ago

Matt Levine's latest post in Money Stuff describes in great detail how Twitter board is mitigating Musks's 51% attack by giving everyone else shares at a 50% discount if any shareholder goes over 15% in ownership. Pretty interesting! https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-04-18/twitter-has-a-poison-pill-now