Resolves YES if an offer to take Twitter private led by Elon Musk succeeds before the end of 2022. (It is not necessary that Musk provide a majority of the capital.)
James Babcock bought M$20 of YESa day ago
Bolton Bailey is betting NO at 85% 13 days ago
Bolton Bailey is betting NO at 92% a month ago
Elon's deal is to take Twitter private at $54.20, and the share price is now $48.64. Doesn't this mean the market thinks there is at most a 90% chance of the deal going through?
Vlad Sitalo is betting NO at 95% a month ago
One guess is that he does not have to become CEO even if he completes the purchase. But looking at resolution criteria for that one - it seems sufficiently permissive
Enopoletus Harding a month ago
Why such a huge difference between this market and this one? https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-elon-musk-become-ceo-of-twitte
Vlad Sitalo bought M$15 of NOa month ago
Hedging on regulatory hurdles (10% of Acquisitions fail on that, arguably it's less likely in this case though)
Isaac Clayton is betting YES at 97% a month ago
Welp, it's about as official as it can get now:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/elon-musk-to-acquire-twitter-301532245.html
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1518677066325053441
Austin is betting YES at 87% a month ago
Honestly this is a bit worrying for Manifold, there's a nonzero chance Elon figures out that prediction markets are the way to go and then Twitter eats our lunch.
Elon: want to buy Manifold while you're at it?
Isaac Clayton is betting YES at 88% a month ago
I absolutely love this market. If anyone's curious about the recent spike, see: https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-twitter-set-accept-musks-best-final-offer-sources-2022-04-25/
Sinclair Chen bought M$10 of NOa month ago
Matt Levine's latest post in Money Stuff describes in great detail how Twitter board is mitigating Musks's 51% attack by giving everyone else shares at a 50% discount if any shareholder goes over 15% in ownership. Pretty interesting!
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-04-18/twitter-has-a-poison-pill-now