Will Zelensky be named Time magazine's Person of the Year 2022?
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resolved Dec 8
Resolved
YES

Sep 22, 2:38pm: I will resolve as this question as here: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10209/zelenskyy-named-time-person-of-the-year-2022/

Fine print from above Metaculus question

If multiple people are named Person of the Year (e.g. in 2020, both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris were named):

• If Zelenskyy is one of 4 or fewer people or entities named, this question resolves positively.

• If he is one of 5 or more people or entities named, it resolves negatively.

• We will count, for example, "Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian people, and the UN" being given the award as Zelenskyy plus two entities (thus resolving positively).

• Simply naming "the Ukrainian people" or even "the Ukrainian government" without specifically naming Zelenskyy should not be enough to resolve positively, even if his face is shown on the cover.

If Zelenskyy is named Person of the Year posthumously, this question still resolves positively.

If Time does not name a Person of the Year for 2022 at all (including if Time ceases to exist), it resolves negatively.

Sep 22, 2:40pm: Zelensky will be Time magazine's Man of the Year 2022 → Will Zelensky be named Time magazine's Person of the Year 2022?

Oct 6, 10:26am:

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Considering it was given to "Volodymyr Zelensky and the Spirit of Ukraine” and not just "Volodymyr Zelensky”, it should resolve to NO

predicted YES

@JamesBall The resolution criteria specifically cover this and say that it should resolve YES:

If he is one of 5 or more people or entities named, it resolves negatively.

We will count, for example, "Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian people, and the UN" being given the award as Zelenskyy plus two entities (thus resolving positively).

predicted NO

@Gabrielle from the fine print from above Metaculus question, however...polymarket is solving to NO

predicted YES

Metaculus has resolved YES.

Why polymarket is solving to NO?!

predicted YES

@MP The official person of the year is “Volodymyr Zelensky and the Spirit of Ukraine”, and Polymarket’s fine print says that a case like this where it includes other people resolves to NO. For Manifold it should still be YES based on the different fine print here.

I am 99% sure metaculus will resolve yes. Should I resolve yes?

predicted YES

@NathanpmYoung It seems to match both the letter and the spirit of the rules. I'd vote yes.

predicted YES

@EdwardKmett Poor polymarket. This one is a bit thorny for their current phrasing.

predicted NO

@NathanpmYoung Kudos for setting resolution criteria that anticipated this edge case

predicted YES

@MartinRandall Thanks :)

Maybe SBF

predicted YES

(not actually sure this is either a shortlist or even really that much of a short list)

predicted NO

@noumena I was surprised to find Zelensky not be the featured person in his category. It would seem weird to get the #1 spot when you don't get featured in your own category.

predicted YES

@Dacaveofwonders ja but have you even heard of the other person before

predicted NO

@noumena Nope. I read the blurb and she's the prime minister of Barbados and has such impressive accomplishments as.....telling a council they should care about climate change.

predicted YES

@Dacaveofwonders Also his entry is written by.. Biden

People will accuse Putin of war crimes for re-taking provinces that were historically part of Russia and vote for pro-Russia parties

Then lionize some half-wit comedian suggesting global thermonuclear war to protect his sinecure

predicted NO

@Gigacasting Putin is a lot less popular now in the parts of Ukraine that his army occupied. Maybe killing children and torturing civilians isn't the best way to advocate for their self-determination.

There's a good chance that it happens, but I don't see any mention of one obvious reason against.

If TIME chooses Zelenskyy, and the Russians later kill him, won't a lot of people blame TIME for having provoked Russian jealousy/spite, even if that is unfair to TIME? And won't TIME consider this risk to their reputation before deciding on Zelenskyy?

predicted YES

@MusterTheSquirrels this sounds quite unlikely, not to say absurd

predicted YES

@MusterTheSquirrels That seems weird. TIME picks people who could potentially be assassinated pretty often, and I think that most people know that the Russians want Zelenskyy dead regardless of whether he is "time person of the year" I mean he's already a major world figure, it's not like people will just hear about him because of TIME.

I mean who would really go: "oh the Russians killed Zelenskyy because of TIME. I hate time now." This being a real risk seems extremely unlikely- I don't think it's something time would worry about at all.

predicted NO