Will Zelensky be named Time magazine's Person of the Year 2022?
77%
chance

Sep 22, 2:38pm: I will resolve as this question as here: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10209/zelenskyy-named-time-person-of-the-year-2022/

Fine print from above Metaculus question

If multiple people are named Person of the Year (e.g. in 2020, both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris were named):

  • If Zelenskyy is one of 4 or fewer people or entities named, this question resolves positively.

  • If he is one of 5 or more people or entities named, it resolves negatively.

  • We will count, for example, "Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian people, and the UN" being given the award as Zelenskyy plus two entities (thus resolving positively).

  • Simply naming "the Ukrainian people" or even "the Ukrainian government" without specifically naming Zelenskyy should not be enough to resolve positively, even if his face is shown on the cover.

If Zelenskyy is named Person of the Year posthumously, this question still resolves positively.

If Time does not name a Person of the Year for 2022 at all (including if Time ceases to exist), it resolves negatively.

Sep 22, 2:40pm: Zelensky will be Time magazine's Man of the Year 2022 → Will Zelensky be named Time magazine's Person of the Year 2022?

Oct 6, 10:26am:

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MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall
bought Ṁ10 of NO

Maybe SBF

noumena avatar
Rachel Shu
bought Ṁ120 of YES
noumena avatar
Rachel Shu
is predicting YES at 78%

(not actually sure this is either a shortlist or even really that much of a short list)

Dacaveofwonders avatar
Tiger Lava Lamp
is predicting NO at 78%

@noumena I was surprised to find Zelensky not be the featured person in his category. It would seem weird to get the #1 spot when you don't get featured in your own category.

noumena avatar
Rachel Shu
is predicting YES at 75%

@Dacaveofwonders ja but have you even heard of the other person before

Dacaveofwonders avatar
Tiger Lava Lamp
is predicting NO at 75%

@noumena Nope. I read the blurb and she's the prime minister of Barbados and has such impressive accomplishments as.....telling a council they should care about climate change.

NathanpmYoung avatar
Nathan Young
is predicting YES at 69%

@Dacaveofwonders Also his entry is written by.. Biden

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting avatar

People will accuse Putin of war crimes for re-taking provinces that were historically part of Russia and vote for pro-Russia parties

Then lionize some half-wit comedian suggesting global thermonuclear war to protect his sinecure

Gigacasting avatar
MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall
is predicting NO at 68%

@Gigacasting Putin is a lot less popular now in the parts of Ukraine that his army occupied. Maybe killing children and torturing civilians isn't the best way to advocate for their self-determination.

MusterTheSquirrels avatar
MusterTheSquirrels
bought Ṁ30 of NO

There's a good chance that it happens, but I don't see any mention of one obvious reason against.

If TIME chooses Zelenskyy, and the Russians later kill him, won't a lot of people blame TIME for having provoked Russian jealousy/spite, even if that is unfair to TIME? And won't TIME consider this risk to their reputation before deciding on Zelenskyy?

MarlonK avatar
Marlon K
is predicting YES at 73%

@MusterTheSquirrels this sounds quite unlikely, not to say absurd

JohnGrossWhitaker avatar
John Gross-Whitaker
is predicting YES at 62%

@MusterTheSquirrels That seems weird. TIME picks people who could potentially be assassinated pretty often, and I think that most people know that the Russians want Zelenskyy dead regardless of whether he is "time person of the year" I mean he's already a major world figure, it's not like people will just hear about him because of TIME.

I mean who would really go: "oh the Russians killed Zelenskyy because of TIME. I hate time now." This being a real risk seems extremely unlikely- I don't think it's something time would worry about at all.

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall
is predicting NO at 65%
MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall
is predicting NO at 70%

It's going to be whoever brutally murders Putin.

NathanpmYoung avatar
I will resolve the same as the metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10209/zelenskyy-named-time-person-of-the-year-2022/
ScottLawrence avatar
Related metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10209/zelenskyy-named-time-person-of-the-year-2022/. (But possibly not identical, pending clarification from @Nathan Young on resolution criteria.)
TobiasDanzer avatar
Tobias Dänzer
bought Ṁ1 of NO
@Nathan Young: Can you clarify how this market resolves if Time picks a group of people which includes Zelensky, e.g. "people of Ukraine" or "all of humanity"? Past such nominations include "You", "The Whistleblowers", "The Protester", "Ebola fighters", and "The Guardians": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year#Persons_of_the_Year
Gigacasting avatar
👆
BTE avatar
@TobiasDanzer good chance it would go to both Zelenskyy and Putin. Also, let’s not forget Xi Jinping is still likely to have the most significant political accomplishment of the year if he is able to get himself appointed to a third term as Chinese President or earns one of the titles unused since Mao like People’s Leader. He hasn’t been person of the year yet.
littlebubulle avatar
littlebubulle
bought Ṁ20 of NO
Reasoning : It will be a Ukrainian but not Zelensky. It will be some soldier or worker (or group of them) to put a "people of Ukraine" spin on the crisis.
Adam avatar
Adam
bought Ṁ20 of NO
Consider: Vladimir Putin
Conflux avatar
Conflux
bought Ṁ2 of NO
Actually one other thing: it’s only March!
Conflux avatar
Conflux
bought Ṁ20 of NO
My reasoning is unchanged.
Conflux avatar
Conflux
bought Ṁ20 of NO
It sounds plausible, but given how many candidates there are for Person of the Year, it's hard to justify it being super probable.