Will more than 5,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War this year?
Basic
59
Ṁ16k
resolved Apr 16
Resolved
YES
To date ~14,000 people have been killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War). The first year of the war was the deadliest, with just over 5,000 people dying (https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War&oldid=644065338). There is talk of another Russia invasion on Ukraine this year with some saying it will be large scale. Will this year be at least as deadly as 2014? #RussiaUkraine #War Mar 2, 2:19pm: Waiting for official confirmation to resolve Apr 5, 2:48pm: Latest confirmed numbers from each side: Russia MoD says 1,351 of its soldiers killed as of March 26: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russian-general-claims-only-1-172549136.html UN OHCHR says 1,430 civilians killed as of April 4: https://www.foxnews.com/world/un-1400-civilians-killed-russia-invasion-numbers-rise Zelensky says 1,300 of its soldiers killed as of March 13: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/13/ukraine-mourns-soldiers-killed-russia-war-volodymyr-zelenskiy = 4081 confirmed so far. Looking for any more recent reports which would push this past 5K as of now. Apr 16, 7:18am: Zelensky says 2,500 - 3,000 troops which puts the total past 5k: https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraines-zelenskiy-between-2500-3000-ukrainian-troops-have-died-war-2022-04-16/
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Ṁ1,000
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can i bribe you for your @c username lmao

Soon it won't matter which source you use :(
How will casualties be determined? Is it an average of high and low "official" figures? Selecting a "neutral" party to estimate deaths? A "neutral" party for only confirmed deaths?
Going with Zvi here: https://thezvi.substack.com/p/ukraine-post-1-prediction-markets?utm_source=url&s=r Plus there's been 2000+ civillian deaths already.
Ukraine claims to have killed ~4500 Russian soldiers and lost ~300 civilians. And we still have 10 months left. I'm surprised this market is so low.

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