Will Russia use a hypersonic missile in Ukraine in 2022?
9
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resolved Mar 22
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YES
This resolves "YES" on mainstream media consensus. Mar 19, 9:04pm: There is mainstream media reporting of Russia's claims to have used hypersonics in the last week. There is Ukrainian confirmation of missile hits from unspecified Russian technology. There is yet to be verification of Russia's claims, as opposed to current reporting of Russia's claims.
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bought Ṁ264 of YES
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/pentagon-demurs-biden-confirms-russia-fired-hypersonic-missile/story?id=83587994
bought Ṁ1 of NO
There is no other source but Russian state actors reporting the use of hypersonics in the Al Jazeera piece
bought Ṁ200 of YES
https://manifold.markets/NN/will-russia-make-battlefield-use-of has resolved YES.
bought Ṁ99 of NO
The only purpose of hypersonic missiles is to deliver nuclear payloads in as manner that evades sophisticated missile defense systems. It's highly improbable that Russia will resort to nuclear weapons against Ukraine and, if they genuinely have hypersonics capable of delivering payloads of any type, are willing to utilize them in a way that allows extensive adversarial data collection.

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