Months resolve to YES as soon as the full month has passed, and Claude 3 Opus is still on the top of the leaderboard. When Claude 3 Opus is no longer on top of the list, that month and all of the following alternatives, resolve to NO.
Resolves according to ELO Arena ELO, not the first "rank" column, on LMSys Chatbot Arena Leaderboard.
Any other model topping the list, including models from Anthropic, or new variations of Claude 3, leads to resolution and closing of this question.
Edit: For new versions of "Claude 3 Opus" that don't change name on the leaderboard, I will consider it a continuation and "keeping its lead", as opposed to examples like "Claude 3 Epic", "Claude 3 Opus Max" or "Claude 4 Opus".
I have and will trade in this market.
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🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ465 | |
| 2 | Ṁ186 | |
| 3 | Ṁ118 | |
| 4 | Ṁ102 | |
| 5 | Ṁ92 |
Edit: NVM I can get it from their Twitter.
@rogs Sorry for late reply here. Your described case would mean the lead has been taken over by GPT-4-1106 as it would have a higher ELO and be listed higher.
The real edge case for me would be if they have the same ELO – in that case I would take the answer for no 1 to be whichever is listed higher, as that is most consistent with my market description. It also