Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?
807
2.9k
52k
Jun 13
65%
chance

Resolves positively if Apple announces that OpenAI will partner with them on Siri. The question still resolves positively even if few details are provided regarding the partnership. An official statement during the main keynote of WWDC 2024 is needed, something like "we partnered with OpenAI to improve Siri" or "Siri will be running the latest OpenAI models" (non-exhaustive list).

Update May 19th: Some notes on specific questions in the comment section:

  • If the partnership is made regarding some new product that is not called Siri then this market will only resolve positively if this new product is the clear successor to Siri AND the current Siri is either removed or slated for removal once the new product becomes available.

  • For a positive resolution there has to be a partnership between Apple and OpenAI. This means that OpenAI cannot treat Apple as a regular customer that is using their API and Apple cannot treat OpenAI as a regular developer. There has to be some active collaboration from both parties.

  • Note that the partnership does not have to be the exclusively or even primarily about Siri as long as the partnership includes Siri.

See this more general question:

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I think Predict is doing a great job running this market, just want to give them kudos for that. I'm going to watch WWDC just for this market 😅

this is such a hard one. the rumors are yes. but so hard. my prior on the rumors is strong. but, it might make more business sense to use gemini.

absent rumors i put it at 30%. with rumors, i put it at 50-70%.

bought Ṁ50 YES at 67%

@CampbellHutcheson the rumors are compelling, but I just don't understand how this would work. Apple has doubled down on privacy, they're going to want an LLM on-device for siri. Sending requests to the cloud, especially openai's servers, is a nightmare for the privacy play they've made. They have chips ready, but need smaller models. Afaik, there's nothing interesting to run locally from OpenAI.

Unless they've been working on that together in secret, but I'd put that probability much lower than 66%.

bought Ṁ200 NO

Apple absolutely hates Microsoft (and didn't they announce their using Google Gemini?)

bought Ṁ50 YES at 65%
bought Ṁ25 YES

Shhh!!!

I still strongly believe that apple will try to make their own AI first, and maybe if they screw it up majorly they will partner with someone else. Plus the OpenAI+Microsoft thing might not help.

This is a tricky one because you specifically state it has to be partnership of using OpenA for Siri. Google's agreement with Apple to be the default search for Siri is valid until 2026, where Google shares revenue with Apple to the tune of ~21 Billion annually.

How would this agreement work with OpenAI to power Siri from a user perspective?

https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/apple-google-search-deal-valid-until-at-least-2026-doj-says

@LeeWoods The partnership with OpenAI doesn't have to be exclusive. And this market doesn't rely on the specifics of the agreement between Apple and OpenAI. The market resolves Yes if all of these are met:

  1. There is an partnership between Apple and OpenAI

  1. It involves Siri

  2. This is stated during the main keynote of WWDC.

why on Earth is this a prize points market 😆

something like

(non-exhaustive list).

@jim Let me know if you have any questions about the resolution criteria or if you have a hypothetical scenario that you're unsure how it would resolve :)

@Predict there are so many I don't really see the point. One example: What if they announce that Siri is being replaced by something other than Siri, in partnership with OpenAI?

Not meant to be a knock on you btw, just seems like an obviously messy market so strange they chose it for prize points

@jim i see that one was addressed below, so what about this one: they state that Siri will have an option to interface with GPT. This is different to running the model and doesn't entail a partnership.

We can come up with an infinite number of these cases

@jim I see. In order to reduce the potential ambiguity, this market is meant to be broad. Any scenario in which Apple integrates some OpenAI-powered feature into Siri or announces that they plan to do so would resolve YES as long as it is a partnership, i.e. OpenAI cannot just treat Apple as a regular customer using their API.

So, your scenario would resolve YES if both Apple and OpenAI acknowledge it as a partnership, collaboration, or similar term, and NO otherwise.

@Predict What differentiates this market from the OTHER one then? When I placed a bet here, I was operating under the assumption that this market would strictly refer to a collaboration about SIRI ITSELF, not some other iOS feature that Siri would simply interface with?

@Predict Basically EVERYTHING on an iPhone “interfaces with Siri”… I mean, Siri can open any app for you, for instance. So, I think for this to resolve YES, Siri ITSELF should be subject to the collaboration, not simply some other iOS Feature that Siri has the power to open or talk to

@Predict Also, the two examples you gave in the description are both explicitly collaborations on Siri itself. So I don’t understand why this market should be changed to include any potential iOS feature with which Siri might interface. Then this market becomes much less interesting

@benshindel Yeah your assumption is correct. I understood james o's scenario as that Siri would have a special GPT interface built into Siri itself.

bought Ṁ100 YES

What if they rebrand Siri and don’t call it that anymore?

What if they partner with OpenAI but they kept Siri separate as their own virtual assistant?

@esusatyo A partnership regarding a rebranded Siri would resolve as YES if the rebranded Siri is the clear successor to Siri AND the current Siri is either removed or slated for removal once the rebranded Siri becomes available.

If they partner with OpenAI on a project that does not involve Siri, and Siri remains a distinct, separate virtual assistant, this market would resolve as NO.

Note that this market does not need the partnership be the exclusively or even primarily about Siri as long as the partnership includes Siri (and that this is stated during the main keynote of WWDC)

See this related market for a more general version of this one: https://manifold.markets/Predict/will-apple-announce-a-partnership-w

@Predict Very clear, thank you.

bought Ṁ7,000 YES

Iphones are OpenAI's killer app.

@traders Manifold has added Fifty Thousand Mana to this market as a Prize Market. You can find more of them on the dashboard:

https://manifold.markets/news/prize-markets

Or just look for markets with the shiny outline!

bought Ṁ1 NO

Not this year

Why is this market a prize market?

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