Conditional on gpt2-chatbot appearing on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard, will it be the top rated model?
18
131
360
resolved May 16
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if gpt2-chatbot is on top of the leaderboard at any time before 01/06/2024

Resolves NO if gpt2-chatbot is on the leaderboard but never reaches the top place before 01/06/2024

Resolves N/A if gpt2-chatbot never appears on the leaderboard

Get Ṁ600 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ169
2Ṁ117
3Ṁ94
4Ṁ70
5Ṁ14
Sort by:

@jim thoughts on how you're going to resolve this one, assuming gpt4o is put on the leaderboard and is on top?

I am betting up based on this comment:

But I wouldn't go much above where I've bet it on this logic applying to this market.

bought Ṁ150 YES

@DanMan314 actually I'm more confident given the description in the non-conditional version of this market you made: https://manifold.markets/jim/will-gpt2chatbot-be-the-toprated-mo

@jim NA may no longer be possible in future, such that markets like this might not be possible to resolve as you intended.

Recommend making a linked multiple choice instead for conditional markets:

  • condition met, outcome YES

  • condition met, outcome NO

  • condition not met

@chrisjbillington i was makin markets like that before but I thought someone said they'd just pay these markets out in manas instead of spice

@jim I doubt anything is set in stone but my understanding is they can't have people's mana balances potentially go negative by clawing back realised profits from sales. Even if the market is unspiced (coining that term, you heard it here first), negative mana balances are potentially printed mana which can be bet on markets for winnings in spice, increasing Manifold's cash payout obligations.

More related questions