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2025
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I will run a Manifold poll 1 month after the official GPT-5 release asking whether or not it exceeded expectations. Resolves to results of that poll.

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Will the expectations be surveyed beforehand, or will the poll ask if GPT-5 meets a user’s arbitrary expectations?

@thepurplebull One month after it's released I'll ask "Does GPT-5 exceed your pre-launch expectations?" I'll resolve this based on the results of that.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

In every paper comparing various leading LLMs, you see that the refusal rate of OpenAI's various GPTs is literally an order of magnitude higher than competitors. And what's more is that it continues to increase with newer releases of GPT. It has gotten to the point that it will refuse to answer questions about math and science even when explicitly prompted that it's own best guess is okay.

bought Ṁ5 of NO

I feel like GPT-5 hype has gone way too far.

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