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FWIW, I made some cynical mana here, but GPT5 meeting expectations and being on trendy is still a huge deal.

@WilliamGunn Agree and if o3 had shipped as GPT-5 it would’ve exceeded expectations.

@Mactuary Damn straight! The disregard for comms and branding among tech platforms continues unabated, but eventually one (and all it will take is one) company will hire people as good as the original Twitter brand & comms and CEOs will realize how many millions they've been leaving on the table.

@traders Poll here: Did GPT-5 Exceed Expectations?

https://manifold.markets/GabeGarboden/did-gpt5-exceed-expectations?r=R2FiZUdhcmJvZGVu

is this today?

https://fortune.com/2025/08/18/sam-altman-openai-chatgpt5-launch-data-centers-investments/

making only 7 mana profit here but winning is winning

I don't know what people's expectations were, exactly, but this is my take:

It seems pretty clear that GPT-5 was not a GPT-3.5 -> GPT-4 moment, but it's good enough at pair programming that it has stolen me back from Gemini 2.5 Pro.

All that for +21 Elo score?

@TheAllMemeingEye bruh it's only 257 above GPT-3.5 from way back in 2022-23, so almost a fifth of the time the model from years ago will beat it XD

I have a take:

It's just o3 RL'ed to have variable thinking. It doesn't feel like a new model at all

@FergusArgyll what does variable thinking mean in this context?

@TheAllMemeingEye It (or a classifier) chooses how much reasoning to devote to a query.

Not an actual technical term as far as I know

If anyone wants to keep trading https://manifold.markets/Thomas42/how-will-gpt-5-exceeds-expectations

EDIT: Poll will be posted in one month (per description)

lmao those are some interesting numbers with that chart

@Balasar chart made by GPT-5

@Balasar lol

@Balasar Holy shit that's misleading lol

Closed so no arbitrage possible

https://manifold.markets/PhilosophyBear/when-gpt5-comes-out-will-more-manif

Is there a similar market, but for GPT 5 being underwhelming?

https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-nvidia-stock-nvda-be-worth-188
This market should be correlated with this one, no?

@jessald Very loosely at best, I hardly expect that the performance of one model is going to have a big effect on Nvidia's stock

Another factor to consider is the demographics of the voters in the future survey.
I wonder if they might be biased?