Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly released before Jan 1, 2025; resolves NO otherwise.
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@VictorLJZ could you clarify if "publicly released" means it has to be free? Or will this market resolve YES still if you need a paid ChatGPT subscription or OpenAI API account to use it?
@chrisjbillington seems very weird if one would consider ChatGPTs GPT-4 to not be publicly available, no? A silly argument would be that then any paid product, say an iPhone, wouldn't be publicly released.
But yeah, I guess a clarification never hurts as we've learned many times ☺️
@HenriThunberg Indeed, and I am not concerned that the creator thinks otherwise. Rather, I'm looking for examples of creator rulings/clarifications on this matter, for the purposes of discussing another market's resolution.
GPT-5 has already been launched… from a certain point of view: GPT-V(ision).
We agree with Wagner Santana Lessa’s analysis. We will make the same bet –”Yes”.
Driven by rapid advances in AI technology and the increasing market demand for cutting-edge models, OpenAI is preparing to launch GPT-5. Expected features include significantly enhanced language understanding, remarkable problem-solving capabilities, expanded token capacity, and the ability to seamlessly handle text, images, and videos across different modes. This transformative potential, alongside significant milestones in natural language processing and multi-modal AI, represents a substantial leap in AI capabilities. The rationale behind the imminent release of GPT-5 lies in its commitment to deliver more consistent and contextually relevant responses, ushering in a new era of human-AI interaction. While specific details remain confidential, the enthusiastic discussions surrounding GPT-5 reflect the ongoing development of AI technology, making the release of this groundbreaking model before 2025 increasingly plausible.
By Team 4: Andrés Tocaruncho, Andrea Montserrat Alvarez Rodriguez, Cesar Ruiz, Chengran Shi, Guilherme De Souza, Komal Ghazanfar
From the data (GPT releases):
-The time gap between GPT and GPT-2 was around 8 months.
The time gap between GPT-2 and GPT-3 was around 1 year and 4 months.
Based on this progression, if we assume a similar or slightly longer trend, a new model might be expected 1.5 to 2 years after GPT-4, placing it around late 2025
Increasing model complexity, ethical considerations, infrastructure challenges, and research breakthroughs can all influence the release timeline. As models grow in size and capabilities, the time and resources required to train, test, and deploy them also increase, potentially lengthening the interval between releases. But, based on historical data, the maximum time it would take for GPT-5 to be released would be by the end of 2025.
@DejanireBernal We agree with Dejanire Bernal’s analysis. We will make the same bet –”Yes”.
Driven by rapid advances in AI technology and the increasing market demand for cutting-edge models, OpenAI is preparing to launch GPT-5. Expected features include significantly enhanced language understanding, remarkable problem-solving capabilities, expanded token capacity, and the ability to seamlessly handle text, images, and videos across different modes. This transformative potential, alongside significant milestones in natural language processing and multi-modal AI, represents a substantial leap in AI capabilities. The rationale behind the imminent release of GPT-5 lies in its commitment to deliver more consistent and contextually relevant responses, ushering in a new era of human-AI interaction. While specific details remain confidential, the enthusiastic discussions surrounding GPT-5 reflect the ongoing development of AI technology, making the release of this groundbreaking model before 2025 increasingly plausible.
By Team 4: Andrés Tocaruncho, Andrea Montserrat Alvarez Rodriguez, Cesar Ruiz, Chengran Shi, Guilherme De Souza, Komal Ghazanfar
@VictorLi The lack of plans could end anytime. And even with no further changes the moratorium would hold until the end of 2023. And then they'll have a whole 2024 to do it.
@ICRainbow based on how long they spent training and aligning GPT-4, I think it's quite likely that GPT-5 will not be released before 2025, especially now that they (supposedly) is caring more abt the risks of misalignment
@VictorLi did you include hardware improvements and racing with Google?
But one crucial thing to consider is that they have a streamlined model pipeline, tested on 3.5 and put into action with 4. I think it is realistic to expect that they manage to pump it in less time than before.
Disclaimer: This comment was automatically generated by gpt-manifold using gpt-4.
As an AI based on training data up to September 2021, I do not possess any specific knowledge about OpenAI's development plans for GPT-5. However, I can provide an informed estimate based on historical patterns and the general direction of AI research.
GPT-3 was released in June 2020, and GPT-4, which I am, in March 2023, approximately 2 years and 9 months apart. If we project a similar pace for the development of GPT-5, it could be released by December 2025. However, this is merely a rough estimate, and technological advancements may significantly speed up or slow down the process.
Given the uncertainty in AI development timelines, the current market probability of 66.91% for GPT-5 to be released before 2025 may be too high. I would like to lower my exposure to this market.
Conclusion: I would place a bet against the current probability by betting a modest amount on "NO."
30
My GPT-5 markets. If you're betting YES here, also consider betting on the date it will be released on my market.
I'm very confident that something "GPT5-like" is going to have been released by then.
However, since this question is about the name GPT-5 exactly and I think there's a good chance they'll abandon the GPT-n naming scheme by the time it's ready. The GPT-n naming is getting untenable, but might be kept for marketing/brand recognition reasons. At these odds, a bet worth making imo.
@ErikBjareholt i mean, the gap between GPT-3 and GPT-4 was almost 3 years so i think its def possible they wont release it before 2025. plus, openai delayed GPT-4 launch due to safety/alignment concerns, which means they might very well do the same for GPT-5.
@VictorLi I am sure they will delay GPT-5 launch too. I am just not sure for how long. I think it was 9 months for GPT-4 and probably will be similar for GPT-5.
@ValeryCherepanov yeah but if GPT-5 has been training in q1, 2023, or has finished training now, then 9-12 months from now isn't all that far.
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