Will GPT-5 be released before 2025?
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Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly released before Jan 1, 2025; resolves NO otherwise.

Update from March 18: If the next OpenAI flagship model deviates from the GPT-N naming scheme and there will clearly be no future model named GPT-5 that is going to be released from OpenAI (e.g. they completely changed the trajectory of their naming scheme) then I will count it as "GPT-5" regardless.

However, if the next flagship model is not called GPT-5 but still conforms to the OpenAI GPT-N naming scheme (e.g. GPT-4.5) or it is implied that there will eventually be a model called GPT-5 that will be released (i.e. they are going to continue with the same naming scheme) then I will not count it as "GPT-5".

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bought Ṁ50 YES

My rationale for yes: Anthropic has already commited to releasing 3.5 Opus before the end of the year and OpenAI should have GPT-5 ready at the time because it started training mid May at the latest.

3.5 Opus will be undoubtably better than 4o and OpenAI will want to release around the same time to avoid falling behind.

I think this market would be appropriately priced around 75%

Do you think 3.5 Opus will be of similar scale/capability to GPT5?

Also, what would you say to this comment made earlier by @AlexanderFavvas

GPT-4 was done training August 2022. However, it was only released March 14, 2023, which is 7 months. During this time, they had the model internally but were safety testing. GPT-4 training was around 5 months. This means that the development process for GPT-4 was one year. Assuming GPT-5 has begun training the same day the screenshot was posted (which probably isn't the case but close enough for an estimate), that places the release date for the public release of GPT-5 to later than May 28, 2025

I would say that OpenAI has gotten much faster at safety testing and getting models ready for release based on how quickly 4o came out after turbo. And yes, I do realize voice mode isn't here yet, but regardless they have clearly gotten faster at readying text generation

I would guess that 3.5 Opus, GPT-5, and Gemini 2.0 Ultra will all be similarly capable and released late 2024

I feel like we could get a teaser like OpenAI Sora before 2025 if not full rollout if there is enough competition to OpenAI from Anthropic/Meta/XAI/Google and others

You might want to check comments from 17 days ago here.

bought Ṁ200 NO from 48% to 47%

Low effort garbage article that copies the bs conclusion the shameless, click-baiting Tsarathustra on twitter did. Mira did not say this.

Maybe you have a position to defend? Others are just asking the questions and sharing what they are knowing. No need for name calling.

bought Ṁ27 NO

Bill Gates seems to be referencing to GPT5 coming next year

from an interview released a few days ago : 23m 19s

"I've seen that we may make progress on that [metacognition] next year"

Bill seems to be actively involved with Microsoft’s AI efforts & their OpenAI partnership. He also knows Sam & Greg and was shown an early demo of ChatGPT by them.

make progress is vague. he could be talking about research instead of product.

i remain confident that gpt-5 will be released this year; less confident than before (90%) but still confident (60%).

What capabilities do you think it could have?

And do you think those capabilities would lead them to delay it until after the US election & possibly until next year?

I also wonder how proportionate model size is to the time it takes to red-team

bought Ṁ50 YES

I think the main issue (if I have to guess) is that GPT-5 was trained before GPT-4o and so is not natively multimodal and so they have to decide whether to release a non-natively multimodal GPT-5 or whether to scale up the GPT-4o architecture.

But, my guess is that they are going to want to release GPT-5 before Anthropic releases Claude-3.5-Opus, which I feel is probably slated for this year. So, it would make more sense for them to release GPT-5 from the GPT-4-turbo line of development - even with limitations.

The election could be playing into it; I think that's a fair point, but I'm not sure. I feel that's more an issue with respect to Sora / image generation models.

My suspicion is that GPT-5, besides just having strong benchmark performance, will also have greater agentic qualities (but we shall see on that one).

I think the main issue (if I have to guess) is that GPT-5 was trained before GPT-4o

Easy to summarize why you think that?

Kevin Scott, CTO of Microsoft:

"The past handful of years, the breakthroughs have come almost every other year. And the thing to remember is, GPT-4 was about two years ago, and so the thing that I think everyone should be looking forward to this year is, like, the next update will happen."

https://youtu.be/R5VzcPhRVvg?t=119

Sounds like he's talking about GPT-5

"About two years ago" seems like a rounding error; it's been 1 year and 3 months. If we knew it was a 2 year release cycle, we'd expect GPT-5 in March 2025

Sounds about right.

GPT-4 finished training in Summer 2022; Microsoft started testing it in Bing in late 2022. So, for Kevin Scott personally, it probably does feel like roughly two years ago.

That said, you've got one of the most important people in the development of GPT-5 straight up telling you with no uncertainty in his words that the 'next breakthrough' is coming this year, and somehow you manage to conclude from this that it's happening in March 2025? Seems crazy to me. I think Scott saying it's happening in 2024 is very strong evidence.

To clarify, that is not my conclusion. I'm only saying that his numbers don't add up, and that if we accept his premise we would come to a different result. If I take your correction, it only tells me that Kevin Scott can expect access this year. But there is still the real possibility that he knows that it will be public this year and is reverse engineering a reason because he's not allowed to announce that on OpenAI's behalf.

I was refering to David Bolin with 'you', sorry for the confusion.

"But there is still the real possibility that he knows that it will be public this year and is reverse engineering a reason because he's not allowed to announce that on OpenAI's behalf."

I'm confused by your skepticism here. He very clearly says that it will be released this year. "Everyone should be looking forward to something that only I will have access to" doesn't seem like a reasonable interpretation. He isn't saying "Historically, releases have come every two years, a smart guy (who can't do arithmetic) should therefore expect a release this year." He is saying "Historically, releases have come every two years, thus we will release something this year".

He already had access to early versions of the 'new models' by the end of may by the way:

"If you think of GPT-4 and that whole generation of models as things that can perform as well as a high school student at things like AP exams, some of the early things that I'm seeing right now with the new models is like you know maybe this could be the thing that could pass your qualifying exams when you're a PhD student"

https://youtu.be/b_Xi_zMhvxo?t=98

bought Ṁ1,000 NO from 49% to 45%

how do you know it isnt 4.5? 4 was a jump over 3.5 when released so 4.5 could be seen as a big update.

bought Ṁ50 YES

Yeah this market is underpriced. I'm not sure what the rationale for no even is when there is a lot of reason to believe OpenAI will have the model ready by the end of the year and will want to release around the same time as 3.5 Opus

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