Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly released before Jan 1, 2025; resolves NO otherwise.
Update from March 18: If the next OpenAI flagship model deviates from the GPT-N naming scheme and there will clearly be no future model named GPT-5 that is going to be released from OpenAI (e.g. they completely changed the trajectory of their naming scheme) then I will count it as "GPT-5" regardless.
However, if the next flagship model is not called GPT-5 but still conforms to the OpenAI GPT-N naming scheme (e.g. GPT-4.5) or it is implied that there will eventually be a model called GPT-5 that will be released (i.e. they are going to continue with the same naming scheme) then I will not count it as "GPT-5".
Related questions
There is a counter-argument to the OpenAI competing with Mistral,Meta,Anthropic to release a better model by 2025 is that, all these companies are getting maximum profit from having a model which is faster, cheaper and dumber. But I still think they might still release gpt-5 equivalent before 2025 for research purposes.
no they arent. if GPT-5 really is a giant leap forward then it opens up new applications and they can adjust the token price accordingly. 1$ for a million tokens is cheap but the tokens are worthless anyway. A model that could code for real or help a researcher go 20% faster could be worth 1000s of $ per million tokens
Well gpt-4o competitors are already here like Llama 3.1 and claude 3.5 , I think it's about time for OpenAI to shock people with their next thing or eventually fade into obscurity.
I'm quite certain it (whether "it" is Strawberry, the model training on GB200s, or something entirely new) won't finish training until 2025, let alone be done with fine-tuning and RLHF. OAI might unveil a GPT-4.5 or 4.5o that uses the same architecture but has benchmark score improvements until 2025, but not an outright new major version of the model.
I'll do more at 48% if anyone's interested. Just not leaving it on bc I'm scared of news, but if there hasn't been any and you wanna trade lmk
My rationale for yes: Anthropic has already commited to releasing 3.5 Opus before the end of the year and OpenAI should have GPT-5 ready at the time because it started training mid May at the latest.
3.5 Opus will be undoubtably better than 4o and OpenAI will want to release around the same time to avoid falling behind.
I think this market would be appropriately priced around 75%
Also, what would you say to this comment made earlier by @AlexanderFavvas
GPT-4 was done training August 2022. However, it was only released March 14, 2023, which is 7 months. During this time, they had the model internally but were safety testing. GPT-4 training was around 5 months. This means that the development process for GPT-4 was one year. Assuming GPT-5 has begun training the same day the screenshot was posted (which probably isn't the case but close enough for an estimate), that places the release date for the public release of GPT-5 to later than May 28, 2025
Alright I tested it some and the results are disappointing to say the least. It got a logic question wrong that only 3 Opus (and not 4o or Sonnet 3.5) can sort of get right.
It also did horribly in the coding exercise I gave it, actually losing convincingly to 4o mini.
I hope for their sake this is a smaller model because if this was 2.0 Ultra then they have lost the AI race.
I'll post the questions below, but will ask that nobody reply with the answers to avoid contamination:
Logic:
You are walking down a path when you come to two doors. Opening one of the doors will lead you to a life of prosperity and happiness, while opening the other door will lead to a life of misery and sorrow. You don't know which door leads to which life.
In front of the doors are two twin guard brothers who know which door leads where. Both of the brothers always lie. You are allowed to ask one single question to one of the brothers (not both) to figure out which door to open. What question should you ask?
Coding:
Write a clone of geometry dash using HTML/JS/CSS that allows the user to jump over an endless sequence of spikes. Put all the code in one file
![](https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F8adrG3-V9L.png?alt=media&token=b90df83d-9284-4234-b953-884831971a03)
I tested its vision by uploading this screenshot from a Bronny James film breakdown and asking what the circled player should do in this situation. Gemini-test thought he was on defense, and suggested he get into a defensive stance. Even 4o-mini was smart enough to realize he was on offense and suggest cutting to the basket