Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly released before Jan 1, 2025; resolves NO otherwise.
Update from March 18: If the next OpenAI flagship model deviates from the GPT-N naming scheme and there will clearly be no future model named GPT-5 that is going to be released from OpenAI (e.g. they completely changed the trajectory of their naming scheme) then I will count it as "GPT-5" regardless.
However, if the next flagship model is not called GPT-5 but still conforms to the OpenAI GPT-N naming scheme (e.g. GPT-4.5) or it is implied that there will eventually be a model called GPT-5 that will be released (i.e. they are going to continue with the same naming scheme) then I will not count it as "GPT-5".
Additional update from Manifold staff before sweepifying:
Publicly released includes if it is behind their subscription or a roll-out where some people have access and some are still waiting. If it's publicly released but only for API access this will still resolve YES. Dates for this market are in PST.
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@fxgn Besides the fact that o1 hasn't even been fully released, it's also not meant for general-purpose questions.
@fxgn sorry, got 4o and o1 confused (which probably says enough about o1). Maybe Orion will be something new but I doubt it comes out this year if so.
@fxgn I still think it's NO because IMO "clearly no future gpt-5" by EOY should require them pretty much announcing that there will never be a gpt-5. That being said, there's enough up for debate in the description that I happily forewent the last 7% and exited my position
@TimothyJohnson5c16 Orion is the codename for their next-gen model series. Each model in that series has a different codename. Same thing with strawberry: https://x.com/polynoamial/status/1834280155730043108
So, yes, no model code-named "Orion" will release this year (or next year)โฆ
@majorj A company spokesman is probably not going to play those kind of gotcha games with code words ("Oh, we didn't release Orion, we just released the first model in the Orion series, called Fergblop, you should have been more precise in your question!") , because they would lose credibility with the reporter and it's one-on-one, so the social convention is that you are trying to communicate an understanding.
This is more important to a spokesman than to a CEO, who can play those kinds of games since they are speaking directly to the public, and the social assumption is that they are choosing their words very specifically.
The Verge really has become a dumpster fire of journalism over the past few years: https://www.theverge.com/2024/10/25/24279600/google-next-gemini-ai-model-openai-december
free mana opportunity if you don't expect any major advancements for the rest of the year https://manifold.markets/WieDan/will-ais-stay-below-1453-elo-in-202
@JaundicedBaboon "Instead, OpenAI is planning to grant access first to companies it works closely with in order for them to build their own products and features, according to a source familiar with the plan."
I don't think that would count as a public release.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 per the description, "Publicly released includes if it is behind their subscription or a roll-out where some people have access and some are still waiting. If it's publicly released but only for API access this will still resolve YES"
@MatthewBaggins I think this is the source: https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1g5ower/sam_altman_revealed_that_even_though_it_didnt_fit/
I think regardless of whether he considered naming it GPT5, he didn't, so that shouldn't count.