Will GPT-5 be released before 2025?
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Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly released before Jan 1, 2025; resolves NO otherwise.

Update from March 18: If the next OpenAI flagship model deviates from the GPT-N naming scheme and there will clearly be no future model named GPT-5 that is going to be released from OpenAI (e.g. they completely changed the trajectory of their naming scheme) then I will count it as "GPT-5" regardless.

However, if the next flagship model is not called GPT-5 but still conforms to the OpenAI GPT-N naming scheme (e.g. GPT-4.5) or it is implied that there will eventually be a model called GPT-5 that will be released (i.e. they are going to continue with the same naming scheme) then I will not count it as "GPT-5".

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opened aṀ250NO at 35% order

@Agh If you want to buy my position at 35%, I'm looking to sell

bought Ṁ200 NO

What does release mean in terms of how available it is for use vs. announced?

https://mashable.com/article/openai-clarifies-no-gpt-next-not-a-new-model

Not sure, was this misunderstanding why people were betting this up?

@DogmaticRationalist gpt5 twice the model size of gpt4? Humm

@Helado On second thought it is possible they might rename it as gpt 4.5

That's possible as well... I should probably sell off some YES if the market gets a bump in the gpt 4.5 hype.

@DogmaticRationalist is the noise in that tweet standing as opposite to signal though?

bought Ṁ100 NO

It has been obvious for months that this resolves NO.

https://x.com/tsarnick/status/1830711272930975912

"Within 5 years", "definitely less than 10"

Technically, they can call whatever they want GPT-5, but there is too much hype for them to give that name to anything they actually have or might have this year.

@DavidBolin I agree that they won't call it GPT-5 unless it is significantly better than GPT-4, but the quote "within 5 years" has nothing to do with it.

@DavidBolin read the description. It counts any really good model they release departing from the name convention, and openai japan is already saying GPT Next will be released this year

@GregMister It only counts that if “there will clearly be no future model named GPT-5”

@LiamZ its very clear that as soon as they release a super gpt with a different name its over

@Sodann It absolutely does; she is saying that within 5 years, probably, or 10 years certainly, they will have much stronger models.

That means very probably they will not have much stronger models (e.g. one they would be willing to call GPT-5) within a year, and maybe not within 2 years.

@GregMister The point is they are not going to release a super GPT, because they do not have one and will likely not have one for a couple of years at least.

@GregMister What defines a “super” GPT?

@GregMister Did OpenAI Japan really say that? I followed the reporting to this article, and it does not say that explicitly. It's on the graph, but the graph was a big hype approximation graph. https://www.itmedia.co.jp/aiplus/articles/2409/03/news165.html

@DouglasCampbell From my perspective, he said something more like "Representative Nagasaki gave an overview of OpenAI's business and referred to the new AI model that will be announced in the future as "GPT Next", and expressed his own views."

@DouglasCampbell OTOH, the graph clearly says 2024 is GPT Next though. And the ripe strawberry probably was a real hint that something is coming. This year is possible.

My prediction is a GPT 4.5 type model implementing strawberry will be released this year. It will be less than 1400 ELO on lmsys. There will be no GPT 5 release this year.

@ZinqTable yep. Gpt 5 straight up doesnt exist yet. The only thing they've been teasing is Q* aka strawberry

If they release Strawberry will that resolve this market?

I thought Strawberry sounded like a separate project that's more specialized. But I guess there's a small chance they choose to label it as GPT-5.

I mean they could simultaneously move away from the GPT branding and released a new model trained on Strawberry output or integrating Strawberry or something. So it would be clear that we'll never get a GPT-5.