Will GPT-5 be released before 2025?
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Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly released before Jan 1, 2025; resolves NO otherwise.

Update from March 18: If the next OpenAI flagship model deviates from the GPT-N naming scheme and there will clearly be no future model named GPT-5 that is going to be released from OpenAI (e.g. they completely changed the trajectory of their naming scheme) then I will count it as "GPT-5" regardless.

However, if the next flagship model is not called GPT-5 but still conforms to the OpenAI GPT-N naming scheme (e.g. GPT-4.5) or it is implied that there will eventually be a model called GPT-5 that will be released (i.e. they are going to continue with the same naming scheme) then I will not count it as "GPT-5".

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@Mothmatic do we believe thats gpt 5 or something beyond?

@RobertoGomez most likely gpt5. training will continue for at least 4 months based on previous trends. done by october. seems rather unlikely they could release before EOY. My guess is Q1 2025

@Mothmatic Might imply that they tried to train it in 2023, gave up and restarted with the compute-saving innovations made for 4o

@AkramChoudhary Can you expand on your timeline here?

"Frontier models coming soon" seems pretty bullish to me.

@perlso59320 hard to tell if that meant 4.5 or 5 tho

bought Ṁ10 NO

I switched from YES to NO on this. I think they'll perhaps have GPT-5 internally, but it will not be released publicly because they won't have enough time to adequately safety-test it to their standards. (Not that I think their standards are high enough, but they do have some!)

bought Ṁ500 NO

it took them 3 years to get from gpt3 to gpt4 so just on the outside view this seems unlikely

opened a Ṁ50 YES at 70% order

@JonathanRay human progress in most fields was exponential so far. On the outside vièw it seems likely to take less than 3 years.

@KongoLandwalker the exponential part of the progress seems to all come from paradigm shifts. Within the same paradigm you pick the low hanging fruit first and it gets harder to make progress

@JonathanRay You say that people exponentially explore/invent new paradigms? Should we expect, that the next smartest thing will not be within gpt paradigm at all?

I mean I it takes a lot of work to improve upon GPT4 it'll take them a while to come up with something better enough to be a new product release. You can either throw exponentially increasing amounts of compute at the current paradigm to get small increases in performance, or you can invent a new paradigm but either way it's probably more than 1.7 years from GPT4 to GPT5

Too little time for this. Although, considering they've opened up version 3.5 for everyone without registration, there might be some chances.

sold Ṁ558 NO

A little annoyed that this market did a literal 180 on its resolution criteria a week ago…

I bet exclusively on the clarification that the model would have to be named “GPT-5” and then that was reversed in the market description after the creator has previously clarified the opposite. Not sure why they would do that… @VictorLJZ ?

@benshindel why would you be annoyed by this ? its obvious what the intention of the original market was and with sam altmans comments on possibly naming gpt5 something else it was the obvious move to make. sure you lost mana but imagine how annoying it would be for others if they got gpt5 but with a different name this year and somehow lost in this market

[deleted, I misread]

@benshindel where's the 180 a week ago? The description appears to be consistent with the comments from a month ago.

They seem designed to exclude "GPT-4.5" but to include the next flagship model (IMHO it would be strange if an incremental model that plausibly could have been called GPT-4.5 were called something else, so I'm not too worried about that).

@chrisjbillington hmmm, you know I can no longer see any comments to that effect at this point. I'm not sure if there was something deleted or if the market description itself was changed? But when I placed the bet there seemed to be a consensus that if it was called something other than "GPT-5" it would resolve NO? But it's very possible I was mistaken and am mixing this up with a similar market with a different set of comments, lol

@benshindel Could be the “by election day” market which I think requires it be called GPT-5

bought Ṁ10 YES

Yes obv, they have to

A related question on whether GPT-5 (or any other model) will have a decisive advantage over GPT-4

bought Ṁ10 NO

Q1 2025

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