Will Claude Opus be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard two years from today (3/10/24)?
10
48
Ṁ369Ṁ300
2026
33%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
To resolve this, I will look at the huggingface Chatbot Arena Leaderboad and see if Claude Opus' ELO is within the top 20. If it is, this market resolves as yes. If not, then no.
https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard
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@AndrewBrown My bad for missing this comment. I will consider any future revisions to count for this. So long as it is released as a Claude 3 model I will count it.
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