Jacy
@Jacy
Following Followers
Relevant beliefs: (i) Any piece of true knowledge can be cashed out in more accurate predictions of observable future events. (ii) Prediction markets perform best when they tend towards literalism (i.e., follow the letter of the criteria instead of the "spirit"). (iii) Manifold is often the best location to find a quick estimate of future events, but it has significant biases in particular cases (e.g., long-term forecasts, tail probabilities, nerd hype) and tends to underperform well-calibrated experts. // Relevant information for how much weight you put on my own forecasts: IQ ≥ 160 (max score). Metaculus Brier: 0.033. I tend to bet quickly on priors (e.g., efficient market hypothesis, against AI hype), in part because I tend to prioritize research and supporting others (e.g., moderation) over building my own forecasts on topics that aren't my core expertise. A significant amount (~35%?) of my Manifold profits are from news trading and other non-epistemic means of making market prices more accurate. // I track my important beliefs on AI, factory farming, physics, etc. here: https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions
1,253Rank
#0
Questions
0
Traders
102+5%