Nuclear Risk 2025: How many of the 7 linked questions resolve Yes?
26
10kṀ70kresolved Jan 1
100%99.0%
0
0.3%
1
0.2%
2
0.2%
3
0.2%
4-5
0.1%
6-7
This is a derivative market. It will resolve exactly according to the resolution of the following questions:
/IsaacKing/will-any-nuclear-weapon-be-detonate-c8fe71e2c9cf
/EvanDaniel/will-there-be-an-offensive-nuclear
/EvanDaniel/will-any-country-that-is-not-curren-ncdy4rg06s
/EvanDaniel/will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-vuou3sbyi3
/EvanDaniel/will-an-aboveground-nuclear-test-ta-6g0yu8nmo1
/EvanDaniel/will-iran-acquire-a-nuclear-weapon
/EvanDaniel/will-any-country-formally-leave-the-8asrgfzza7
See also:
/EvanDaniel/nuclear-war-2025-how-many-of-the-li
Previously:
/EvanDaniel/nuclear-risk-2024-how-many-of-the-8
Next:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ3,105 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,558 | |
| 3 | Ṁ843 | |
| 4 | Ṁ350 | |
| 5 | Ṁ274 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Nuclear Risk 2026: How many of the 6 linked markets resolve Yes?
UK gov accepts all 47 Fingleton nuclear review recommendations by Q1 2026?
54% chance
Will a nuclear disaster occur that scores a 5, 6, or 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale by EOY 2030?
44% chance
Will a nuclear disaster occur that scores a 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale by EOY 2030?
13% chance
At least one fatality from nuclear weapons in 2027?
4% chance
Will a nuclear power incident cause 25 deaths (or equivalent) before 2030?
13% chance
At least one fatality from nuclear weapons in 2026?
4% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2027?
17% chance
Will there be a major nuclear disaster by 2030?
12% chance
Will there be another significant accident in a nuclear power plant before 2035?
18% chance