Nuclear Risk 2026: How many of the 6 linked markets resolve Yes?
21
1kṀ4017Dec 31
67%
0
26%
1
4%
2
2%
3-4
0.6%
5-6
This is an attempt to make an overall risk index; it will resolve exactly according to these underlying markets:
/EvanDaniel/will-any-country-formally-leave-the-OAASCz9ztA
/EvanDaniel/will-an-aboveground-nuclear-test-ta-dPUQqQCtQL
/EvanDaniel/will-there-be-a-newly-major-war-inv-2LO0IgPqzz
/IsaacKing/will-any-nuclear-weapon-be-detonate-602fc87e774f
/EvanDaniel/will-any-country-that-is-not-curren-pNszzP2O6E
/EvanDaniel/at-least-one-fatality-from-nuclear
Previously:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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