Nuclear Risk 2026: How many of the 6 linked markets resolve Yes?
20
1kṀ37262026
78%
0
14%
1
5%
2
2%
3-4
0.6%
5-6
This is an attempt to make an overall risk index; it will resolve exactly according to these underlying markets:
/EvanDaniel/will-any-country-formally-leave-the-OAASCz9ztA
/EvanDaniel/will-an-aboveground-nuclear-test-ta-dPUQqQCtQL
/EvanDaniel/will-there-be-a-newly-major-war-inv-2LO0IgPqzz
/IsaacKing/will-any-nuclear-weapon-be-detonate-602fc87e774f
/EvanDaniel/will-any-country-that-is-not-curren-pNszzP2O6E
/EvanDaniel/at-least-one-fatality-from-nuclear
Previously:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Nuclear Risk 2025: How many of the 7 linked questions resolve Yes?
1 day before the explosion, what will be the % at the linked market about "nuclear offensive detonation in 2025"?
Nuclear War 2025: How many of the linked markets resolve Yes?
More long shot bets: How many of the 10 linked markets will resolve as expected?
Resolution criteria mandatory for Yes/No markets on 03/03/2026?
26% chance
Will a nuclear disaster occur that scores a 5, 6, or 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale by EOY 2030?
44% chance
[Credit Default Swap] How many of these markets will resolve to YES?
At least one fatality from nuclear weapons in 2026?
4% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2026?
11% chance
Will a nuclear disaster occur that scores a 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale by EOY 2030?
13% chance