Nuclear Risk 2026: How many of the 6 linked markets resolve Yes?
29
Ṁ1kṀ7.1kDec 31
65%
0
17%
1
9%
2
6%
3-4
3%
5-6
This is an attempt to make an overall risk index; it will resolve exactly according to these underlying markets:
/EvanDaniel/will-any-country-formally-leave-the-OAASCz9ztA
/EvanDaniel/will-an-aboveground-nuclear-test-ta-dPUQqQCtQL
/EvanDaniel/will-there-be-a-newly-major-war-inv-2LO0IgPqzz
/IsaacKing/will-any-nuclear-weapon-be-detonate-602fc87e774f
/EvanDaniel/will-any-country-that-is-not-curren-pNszzP2O6E
/EvanDaniel/at-least-one-fatality-from-nuclear
Previously:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?
41% chance
Resolution criteria mandatory for Yes/No markets on 06/06/2026?
16% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2026?
11% chance
At least one fatality from nuclear weapons in 2026?
11% chance
Will a nuclear disaster occur that scores a 5, 6, or 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale by EOY 2030?
44% chance
[Credit Default Swap] How many of these markets will resolve to YES?
Will there be a new(ly) major war involving a nuclear power before the end of 2026?
35% chance
Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2026? (Tests included)
10% chance
Will any of my current or future "WEIRD doomsday" markets resolve to YES by 2030?
69% chance
Which countries will increase the size of their nuclear warhead stockpile in 2026?