Nuclear risk 2024: How many of the 8 linked questions will resolve Yes?
➕
Plus
21
Ṁ5528
Jan 4
86%
0
3%
1
8%
2
1.3%
3
1%
4-5
0.2%
6-8
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

See also:
/EvanDaniel/nuclear-risk-2024-how-many-of-the-8-1d6566217a38

/EvanDaniel/nuclear-risk-2024-noise-how-many-of-0201d8781984

This trio is a bit of an experiment to see how close together they get arbitraged and how the "noise" markets influence the results. Between the three of them it should be possible to analyze interest rate effects and such.

I didn't even look at the markets before betting so hopefully they aren't trolling me. I made a handy 9% on my 10 mana bet on 0 in the last one so I'm trying that again.

@Eliza They're basically reasonable. There's some correlational structure to them, since it includes "any nuke" along with several more specific options, but the other options don't imply complete coverage, so all the numbers are reasonably plausible.

Definitely think about correlations before trying to price this with any precision, but that was probably obvious to begin with...

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules