Will a nuclear power incident cause 25 deaths (or equivalent) before 2030? | Manifold

Will a nuclear power incident cause 25 deaths (or equivalent) before 2030?

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2030

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The accident must occur in one of USA, France, South Korea, Canada, UK. If I estimate 25 deaths, 1000 QALY-loss, or more were caused then this resolves YES else NO. QALY loss includes an estimate of future conditions resulting from radiation exposure caused by the incident.

These deaths may result from any single incident. The incident may involve any part of the nuclear power supply chain (enrichment, transportation, plant operation, waste storage...). If some part of the supply chain is breached, and used by a malicious actor thereby causing death this also counts. Nuclear weapons used by countries' military do not count.

This question is intended to broadly cover all problems arising from nuclear power.

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The proliferation of nuclear power has been very thoroughly prevented, and existing power stations are under heavy scrutiny. There's a small chance, through war, activism, or terrorism, that something might happen, but in this timeframe I find it unlikely.

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