At least one fatality from nuclear weapons in 2026?
4
1kṀ550
2026
4%
chance

  • The fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.

  • Any detonation of a nuclear weapon, whether test or non-test, deliberate or inadvertent or accidental, would count towards question resolution.

  • Detonation here means nuclear explosion. If a conventional explosion occurs but no nuclear explosion (for example, a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material with a conventional explosion), that does not count. If a nuclear weapon were launched but the nuclear weapon did not detonate, that would not count as detonation.

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Previous similar markets:

/jack/will-a-nuclear-weapon-detonation-ca-1f2e9a9515f4

/EvanDaniel/will-nuclear-weapons-cause-at-least

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