Nuclear Risk 2026: How many of the 6 linked markets resolve Yes?

Question

This is an attempt to make an overall risk index; it will resolve exactly according to these underlying markets:

@/EvanDaniel/will-any-country-formally-leave-the-OAASCz9ztA

@/EvanDaniel/will-an-aboveground-nuclear-test-ta-dPUQqQCtQL

@/EvanDaniel/will-there-be-a-newly-major-war-inv-2LO0IgPqzz

@/IsaacKing/will-any-nuclear-weapon-be-detonate-602fc87e774f

@/EvanDaniel/will-any-country-that-is-not-curren-pNszzP2O6E

@/EvanDaniel/at-least-one-fatality-from-nuclear

Previously:

@/EvanDaniel/nuclear-risk-2024-how-many-of-the-8

@/EvanDaniel/nuclear-risk-2025-how-many-of-the-7

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 0, followed by 1 and 2 are most likely. See the market for live updates (29 traders, as of Mar 15, 2026).