Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between July 3, 2025, and July 3, 2030, a nuclear weapon is detonated in an act of war, resulting in at least one fatality. The detonation must be confirmed by credible sources such as major international news organizations (e.g., Reuters, BBC, Associated Press) or official government statements. Tests, accidents, or non-fatal incidents will not count towards resolution.

Background

The risk of nuclear conflict has been a subject of extensive analysis. Estimates vary, but some experts suggest a 1% annual probability of nuclear war, accumulating to a significant risk over multiple years. For instance, a 1% annual risk over five years results in approximately a 4.9% cumulative probability. (thebulletin.org)

Considerations

Several factors influence the likelihood of nuclear conflict:

• Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing conflicts, such as those involving Russia and Ukraine, and tensions in the Middle East, contribute to instability. (reuters.com)

• Arms Control Agreements: The expiration or abandonment of treaties like the INF Treaty and the potential non-renewal of New START increase risks. (tandfonline.com)

• Technological Developments: Advances in missile technology and the deployment of hypersonic weapons reduce reaction times, heightening the risk of miscalculation. (energyintel.com)

Traders should monitor these dynamics, as they significantly impact the probability of nuclear conflict within the specified timeframe.