@AffineTyped Can this resolve?

@EvanDaniel I'm still not fully decided on what to do, as the model is still labeled "Preview" on many official GDM websites including recent blog posts, playgrounds, and API portals

@AffineTyped I'm betting on it counting but I appreciate the ambiguity. I think waiting makes sense. If the "preview" label is silently dropped everywhere then I'd argue that Nov 18 counted as the release. If there's additional fanfare for "coming out of preview" then, well, there's still the technicality from the market description about the chat app (roughly, "...or the app doesn't include 'preview' anywhere visible") but I understand that if "coming out of preview" is treated as an additional milestone then perhaps that's what this market was meant to be about, in spirit.

(And I do believe, in general, in resolving to the spirit of the question. If I lose a lot of money on this, it was my own fault for not asking the clarifying question. It's never ok to latch on to a blatant technicality and go all in on it without asking the market creator for confirmation/clarification. Which is effectively what I did here. I actually got a hot tip in the Discord that there was free money here so I jumped on it. Dumb of me!)

PS: It would be great to hear more of your thought process and motivation for creating this market in the first place. I think that bears on the question of how to most fairly resolve it. It's all totally your discretion but I think spelling out your thinking is helpful, even if just helpful for you.

@dreev see this thread for context about why this market was created (it was afaict largely to single out coming out of preview as a distinction for "true" release): https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/when-will-google-release-gemini-3#yin6kbwpo1q

fwiw N/A is totally an option if you don't want to deal with the ambiguity

see this tweet (though the user's conclusion is mostly slop, this is strongly indicative that the current releases are preview and that they are going to release General Access versions)

@Bayesian I probably stand to gain from N/A resolution but I feel duty-bound to link to my manifesto on why that's bad, except for some Principled Exceptions. I guess the case for Exception C would be that the creator accidentally included the "or the chat app doesn't say 'preview'" despite that not comporting with their intention for the market. I think that's a stretch though. The creator was just giving examples of what "out of preview" means and so it's just kind of ambiguously true that it was released as non-preview on Nov 18. It met the criteria in some ways and not others. Which would imply a resolve-to-PROB as the most principled answer. I realize everyone hates that.

PS: Or maybe Exception D applies? I have too much conflict of interest to assess this fairly! But I stand by the anti-N/A screed and promise not to edit it till this is resolved!

@mods please resolve YES from 18 November 2025.

Gemini 3.0 was released across multiple platforms.

The version available in the Gemini app - Gemini 3.0 thinking - did not have, and still does not have, any indication that it was experimental or a preview, after about a month of invitation/limited/hidden access.

The rollout on 18 November 2025 was a release of a ready, production product. Gemini 3.0 was officially released on 18 November 2025.

https://blog.google/products/gemini/gemini-3-flash/

@AffineTyped , please resolve YES all the dates, google confirmed again the last month's release of gemini 3.0

They haven't released a no double speak version yet, and it is now the 22nd

No need to rename.

The 'preview' label currently rudimentary to the model only in api and is ommited elsewhere rather than a reflection of its status on API.

The model was fully officially released worldwide on November 18, 2025, and is fully operational across the Gemini app without 'preview' tag, including LMarena, and in other Google ecosystems. There is no 'preview' tag in gemini app.

Unlike previous iterations that required updates after testing, this model did not undergo significant updates during its beta-preview phase in October-November because it appeared perfect from scratch with stability and performance without needs of upgrade.

It is effectively in full production mode, despite the lingering API naming artefact.

The real double-speak was the friends we made along the way.

@Haiku yes, let's make everyone happy

exactly (this market) Resolved YES 16 days ago

@Bayesian,

It’s not fair that you’re editing the description of a market that isn’t yours, especially when you hold a significant position in it.

With the updated description, it’s no longer clear that the author explicitly meant the exact release - just like in your other market about Gemini 3.0.

Yes, this market is basically just a duplicate.

😂

The "Gemini Double Speak Version" refers to a text-to-speech (TTS) capability. It was introduced with the Gemini 2.5 models. This feature generates dialogue using two distinct voices.

This feature is also known as multi-speaker dialogue generation or multi-speaker text-to-speech. It allows users to create natural-sounding conversations between two different personas from a single text input.

Key details:

• Models: It is available using the gemini-2.5-flash-tts and gemini-2.5-pro-tts models.

@Manifolduser lol

@AffineTyped
I’m really asking you to please try to understand the question. The situation feels very confusing and frustrating. As we can all see, Gemini 3.0 has already been released, and the similar market mentioned in the rules was resolved YES a long time ago.

So it’s hard to understand why our funds here still need to remain frozen instead of being available for us to use elsewhere. Could you please unfreeze the funds and resolve this market appropriately?

For context, Gemini 3.0 was officially released publicly on 18 November, and it began rolling out in the Gemini app globally within the following three days.

Thank you for taking the time to resolve this

People are genuinely hesitant to buy here because of the confusing phrase “Gemini Double Speak Version” in the heading. Don’t understand what it is supposed to mean, and it’s creating uncertainty.

From the Gemini team’s response, it seems clear that the question you asked was about whether the next version would be 2.9-tts, not a completely new major release like Gemini 3.0.

But in reality, Google released an entirely new series: Gemini 3.0.0.

We’re just hoping this can be clarified so people feel safe interacting with the market. Thanks for taking the time to look into it.

please vote: https://manifold.markets/24norwayElimSolberg/which-day-gemini-3-pro-was-official

Google official: https://blog.google/products/gemini/gemini-3/

@24norwayElimSolberg

@Paul

@AffineTyped please resolve this gemini 3 app market

If Tier 1 rate limits increase significantly after the model goes out of preview, how should this market resolve?

Another example of Google DeepMind calling Gemini 3 released: https://youtube.com/shorts/KzB0ywf4V-E?si=f69vX3mpgSThfyKi

@dreev GG!