"Gemini 3" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Gemini 2 in a similar way to how Gemini 2 was the successor to Gemini 1, so Gemini 3.0 pro would count, but Gemini 2.X would not.
Models are considered released if they are available on an API endpoint or chat app option that does NOT include a term in the realm of "experimental", "preview", etc.
See also:
/Bayesian/when-will-google-release-gemini-3 (this market)
/Bayesian/when-will-xai-release-grok-5
/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-gpt6
/Bayesian/when-will-anthropic-release-claude-qZd5QEQ225
/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-r2
/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-v4
/Bayesian/when-will-meta-release-llama-5-6h9UypqOdp
/Bayesian/when-will-alibaba-release-qwen-4
/Bayesian/when-will-moonshot-release-kimi-k3
/Bayesian/when-will-google-release-nano-banan
/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-their-next
/Bayesian/when-will-thinking-machines-announc
Update 2025-11-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Preview and experimental releases will count as releases for this market. The creator has clarified that the first model released, even if labeled as "preview" or "experimental", will count for resolution purposes.
1,000@creator you might want to confirm this in the market description:
Update 2025-11-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Preview and experimental releases will count as releases for this market. The creator has clarified that the first model released, even if labeled as "preview" or "experimental", will count for resolution purposes.