Gemini 3.8+ Flash (Google) release date

Question

The '+' means any version at or above 3.8 counts: if Google skips 3.8 and releases Gemini 3.9 Flash or Gemini 4 Flash, that still counts for the purpose of this market. Only a Flash model counts — Pro and Flash-Lite releases do not resolve this market. Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Gemini 3.8 Flash, will also count.

The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.

See also:

@8AyI5Np5yl

@OchSUnInIq

@cgl2IP0yIC

@LU5RqqqEuA

@2OzL6Q56y8

@IZO2UZgUNO

@2CqdhIO9cU

@AnL9Aqgzc5 (this market)

@N0qR0nZl8O

@AzzEpzA8ys

@ntStglnQz0

@SCnZAUUzEP

@ytI2ZPyzt5

@y5CU6hUn6s

@lPSIdZRpQs

@qyC5ychznC

@RlI6hyuNpU

@2Rh2t5hALp

@NONz6Ntycp

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Before 2026-12-01, followed by Before 2026-11-01 and Before 2026-10-21 are most likely. See the market for live updates (2 traders, as of Aug 31, 2026).

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