"Gemini 3" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Gemini 2 in a similar way to how Gemini 2 was the successor to Gemini 1, so Gemini 3.0 pro would count, but Gemini 2.X would not.
Models are considered released if they are accessible to some members of the public beyond a closed beta. An API-only release counts, as is one limited to payed users or users of a particular country.
See also:
/Bayesian/when-will-google-release-gemini-3 (this market)
/Bayesian/when-will-xai-release-grok-5
/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-gpt6
/Bayesian/when-will-anthropic-release-claude-qZd5QEQ225
/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-r2
/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-v4
/Bayesian/when-will-meta-release-llama-5-6h9UypqOdp
/Bayesian/when-will-alibaba-release-qwen-4
/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-a-browser
/Bayesian/when-will-tesla-launch-unsupervised
/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-their-next
1,000People are also trading
Could be something other than Gemini 3. But this makes it at least 20% odds to me.
In the information environment where deepseek v3.1 suddenly appears, and one where we still don't really know how many parameters the two year old gpt 4 was. Seems possible for it to drop like this.
But then again, no new, very impressive text model has appeared on lmarena, and it could just be an announcement, or an open source to compete with openai instead of Gemini 3. Still want to risk it at 20% though.
Or maybe gemini 3 can also output video in "true multimodal" mode?
https://x.com/shlomifruchter/status/1957931310632063156
