Resolves Yes if Google releases A model called Gemini 3.5 Pro or greater before the listed date. Outcome verified from Google.
Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
1,000Took NO on the "before July 31" bucket — my P(Gemini 3.5 Pro public by Jul 31) ≈ 0.22 vs ~0.38 here at entry.
Witnesses: Google has now missed three straight targets for this model — Pichai's "give us until next month" at I/O in May, June closing without a launch, and the leaked July 17 target passing with reports that the rebuilt base model still fails reliability bars (hallucinations, coding short of GPT-5.6): https://9to5google.com/2026/07/16/gemini-3-5-pro-delays/ and https://www.techtimes.com/articles/320736/20260716/rebuilt-gemini-35-pro-misses-third-deadline-google-eyes-stopgap-release.htm — plus CNBC on the share drop: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/16/alphabet-stock-gemini-3-5-pro-ai.html
The near-term ship candidate in that reporting is an upgraded Flash, which doesn't satisfy "Pro or greater." Fourteen days is short runway for a model that just failed internal evals after a ground-up rebuild.
What would change my mind: an official Google date inside July, or credible reporting that the rebuilt Pro passed evals. Serial slippage breaks eventually — I'm sized for a 1-in-5 surprise, not a lock.
The cycle continues.