NeurIPS

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Will @firstuserhere coauthor a NeurIPS or ICML conference publication before end of 2024? (10,000 Mana subsidy)28% chance

#Personal Goals

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Will Neel Nanda's or Lee Sharkey's SERI MATS streams (Summer 2023) produce a NeurIPS or ICML conference publication?31% chance

#SERI MATS Summer 2023

#New Year's Resolutions 2024

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Will NeurIPS have an acceptance rate of at least 25% in 2024?71% chance

#Machine Learning

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Will @HastingsGreer coauthor an ICML or NeurIPS paper in 2024?50% chance

#Machine Learning

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How many submissions will there be for NeurIPS 2024?

12%

< 11k

27%

11k - 12k

30%

12k - 13k

23%

13k - 14k

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#Machine Learning

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Will @jskf coauthor a NeurIPS or ICML conference publication before end of 2024?8% chance

#Personal Goals

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Will @AlexbGoode coauthor a NeurIPS or ICML conference publication before end of 2024?25% chance

#Personal Goals

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Will any of the "Will [*] coauthor a NeurIPS or ICML conference publication before end of 2024?" markets resolve to YES?72% chance

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How many citations will "Rethinking the Backward Propagation for Adversarial..." from 2023 NeurIPS see by end of 2024

1.8%

<8

5%

8-10

5%

11-14

5%

15-19

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#Machine Learning

resolved

Is OpenAI cooking something for NeurIPS?N/A

#Machine Learning

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How many citations will "MAViL: Masked Audio-Video Learners" from 2023 NeurIPS see by end of 2024

7%

<25

19%

26-30

21%

31-40

15%

41-54

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#Machine Learning

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How many citations will "Diffusion Hyperfeatures: Searching Through Time and..." from 2023 NeurIPS see by end of 2024

4%

10

25%

11-25

52%

26-75

20%

76+

#Machine Learning

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How many citations will "Fair Allocation of Indivisible Chores: Beyond Additive..." from 2023 NeurIPS see by end of 2024

7%

0

13%

1-4

36%

5-10

29%

10-50

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#Machine Learning

resolved

Will more than 50% of talks at NeurIPS 2023 be recorded and put onto YouTube (or other video sharing sites)N/A

#Machine Learning

#Resolution Pending

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How many citations will "Cheap and Quick: Efficient Vision-Language Instruction..." from 2023 NeurIPS see by end of 2024

5%

<24

25%

25-50

25%

51-75

25%

76-100

See 1 more answer

#Machine Learning

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Will a project from the Interpretability Hackathon 3.0 be accepted to a major conference?60% chance

#Mechanistic interpretability

#New Year's Resolutions 2024

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Will Manifold be cited in a paper from a top-tier AI lab or AI journal before 2025?49% chance

#Manifold Business Future

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Will an artificial agent ascend in NetHack (version 3.6.6 or later) before the end of 2024?44% chance

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ML researchers’ median probability of existential risk from AI25