Will Neel Nanda's or Lee Sharkey's SERI MATS streams (Summer 2023) produce a NeurIPS or ICML conference publication?
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18
Ṁ1992
Dec 31
25%
chance

Resolves "Yes" if the research for the publication was mostly conducted before Sep 2, 2023, even if the paper is accepted later.

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This should be resolvable now @Ryannn

I extended the close time as Neel says some of his scholars are resubmitting papers and others are submitting new ones.

predicts NO

Can anybody explain this resolution? Neither submission deadline has passed.

@GoodGuesser I am not sure what you mean, it says Summer 2023 and the creator said they'd resolve it 4 days ago.
Resolutions can be fixed if needed. And markets extended if needed.

@Ryannn Is this resolution correct or do we wan to re-open and extend the market?

predicts NO

@SirCryptomind The SERI MATS program took place in summer 2023, but the first opportunity to submit an ICML paper since summer 2023 is the 2nd of Feb 2024. The first opportunity to submit a Neurips paper will be in May 2024. Authors find out whether their paper was accepted a few months later. So I think this needs to wait until at least May to see if a NeurIPS paper is submitted, and if one is, it might need to wait until November.

@GoodGuesser Oh, makes sense. Thank you for that information. I will unresolve and await the creators decision.

@Ryannn Can you please resolve? Thank you!

@traders should this get extended or any proof of how to resolve?

@SirCryptomind Sorry, I will resolve

predicts NO

@Ryannn Neither ICML nor NeurIPS have had submissions since the summer. Their submission/acceptance dates are Feb/May and May/Nov respectively. So shouldn't it wait until then?

I'm pushing for two papers submitted to ICLR, sorry!

predicts YES

Note: ICLR is not included, and the deadline for it is Sept 28. From an outsider perspective, this is a reason to not bet this too high.

What if no conference papers are published, but a workshop paper is published?

@ArthurConmy I could make a second market?

predicts YES

@RyanKidd meaning w.r.t. the resolution criterion, does a workshop paper count?

@JonathanNgda10 No, that would not be sufficient for this market.

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