Will @AlexbGoode coauthor a NeurIPS or ICML conference publication before end of 2024?
6
132
170
Dec 31
25%
chance

I am incentivized to try and resolve this as YES. I will be betting in this market as well.

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Small update: I have 2 papers planned for NeurIPS'24. One is almost done and if nobody finds a stupid mistakes (in the theorems) it will be submitted with high probability. The other one is more of question mark but I feel very good about the idea and first experiments confirm our hypothesis.

I think the probability is still too high though 😂

This is way too high. Our paper for 2023 got rejected at NeurIPS and we have resubmitted to AAAI. ICML deadline is in January and I probably won't submit because I am trying to finish my thesis in December (and also I am a little tired of the ML peer review situation). So the only chance for this to resolve yes is NeuRIPS 2024 and base rates are not great.

predicts YES
bought Ṁ1 of YES

That would be very good!

Market idea from @firstuserhere

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Good idea