Will Manifold be cited in a paper from a top-tier AI lab or AI journal before 2025?
Dec 31

"Citing" includes mentioning Manifold Markets by name, referring to a specific market on our platform, including a url to market, etc. "Top-tier AI lab or AI journal" means OpenAI, Anthropic, FB AI, Google DeepMind, NeurIPS, Nature Machine Intelligence, or anything of that caliber.

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Do people think the sweepstakes pivot will increase the likelihood here? We are now through about 12 out of 20 months in this questionโ€™s timeline.

bought แน€50 NO

@jgyou Foreshadowing from a major lab? Rumor from a Manifold employee?

Absolutely wild that this hovered at 50% for half of its lifespan. The growth rate of Manifold and its relationship with these labs does not make this look like a coin flip. Or if they do, Manifold's marketing is failing bigtime!

It would be cool if individual markets or dashboards had bibtex entries to make it easy to cite them

predicts YES

@mariopasquato Would need a good way to cite a market at a specific point in time.

predicts YES

@jskf @ian How challenging would it be to create a way of linking to a static view of a market at a particular moment in time? Like, to make it that appending a timestamp parameter to a market URL displays the graph, values, comments, options, limit orders, bets, positions, etc. up until that moment, what would be the estimated cost of developing, hosting, and maintaining?

@citrinitas ๐Ÿ‘€

predicts YES

@jskf hmm. I don't currently have any anthropic insider knowledge on this topic, and if I do learn anything sensitive I certainly won't trade on it

@citrinitas My ๐Ÿ‘€ were more of the #movethismarket variety.

The market closes 31 Dec 2025. Is the closing date correct here?

Like, wouldn't "before 2025" imply that 2025 not included? I'm not a native speaker, so I asked GPT-4 and it seems to think 2025 not being included is implied by "before".

@42irrationalist i agree with GPT-4's interpretation

predicts NO

@42irrationalist Hey @SG Could you confirm this? I also read it as "before" meaning "before".

@Panfilo @42irrationalist The close date was not correct. I've changed it to be the end of the year. (In general, question and description text should have higher priority over the close time when the two conflict, esp since it's easy to mess up the latter.)

If you raise the stakes this might turn into an incentive market ;)

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