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It will be on the front page of the NYT in the week after it is declassified

'declassifi':17 'front':6 'nyt':10 'page':7 'week':13

It is related to Nuclear weapons (Someone now has them, someone is now close to having them, etc)

'close':14 'etc':18 'nuclear':5 'relat':3 'someon':7,11 'weapon':6

It will be declassified by the end of February.

A majority poll of Manifold users will agree that it is really is a "serious national security threat"

'agre':8 'major':2 'manifold':5 'nation':16 'poll':3 'realli':12 'secur':17 'serious':15 'threat':18 'user':6

It is related specifically to Iran's nuclear weapons program

'iran':6 'nuclear':8 'program':10 'relat':3 'specif':4 'weapon':9

It will be declassified before Presidents' Day (February 19)

'19':9 'day':7 'declassifi':4 'februari':8 'presid':6

It’s that Iran currently has nuclear weapons

'current':5 'iran':4 'nuclear':7 'weapon':8

There's a mention of cybersecurity or cyberwarfare

'cybersecur':6 'cyberwarfar':8 'mention':4

It will be known by April what country/group the threat is from

'april':6 'country/group':8 'known':4 'threat':10

There is new military action as a direct consequence of this threat

'action':5 'consequ':9 'direct':8 'militari':4 'new':3 'threat':12

The threat is mentioned in a 2024 US presidential debate

'2024':7 'debat':10 'mention':4 'presidenti':9 'threat':2 'us':8

Scheme to scare Americans & Congress into reinstating section 702 of Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA)-expiring in April-so they can continue to collect communications on Americans & foreigners.






'702':9 'act':14 'american':4,28 'april':19 'april-so':18 'collect':25 'communic':26 'congress':5 'continu':23 'expir':16 'fisa':15 'foreign':11,29 'intellig':12 'reinstat':7 'scare':3 'scheme':1 'section':8 'surveil':13

It will be leaked to the public (All major details, so no one is waiting for more information)

'detail':10 'inform':18 'leak':4 'major':9 'one':13 'public':7 'wait':15

It's related to electromagnetic/electronic warfare

'electromagnetic/electronic':5 'relat':3 'warfar':6

There is a Manifold market related to it which is considered a "major sitewide event" by a majority of voters in a Manifold poll

'consid':11 'event':15 'major':13,18 'manifold':4,23 'market':5 'poll':24 'relat':6 'sitewid':14 'voter':20

Mike Turner is lying and there is no threat

'arm':5 'conflict':6 'current':4 'involv':2

If the threat is declassified, Vladimir Putin will deny that it is true in a public appearance before April 1st

'1st':20 'appear':17 'april':19 'declassifi':5 'deni':9 'public':16 'putin':7 'threat':3 'true':13 'vladimir':6

It's related to tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine

'nuclear':6 'relat':3 'tactic':5 'ukrain':9 'weapon':7

It’s related to climate or weather modification

'climat':5 'modif':8 'relat':3 'weather':7

If it's related to Russia, Tucker Carlson will make a video statement about it on X (within 10 days of the US officially confirming it is related to Russia)

'10':19 'carlson':8 'confirm':25 'day':20 'make':10 'offici':24 'relat':4,28 'russia':6,30 'statement':13 'tucker':7 'us':23 'video':12 'within':18 'x':17

It is related to capabilities to hack US or European civilian infrastructure such as power grids and voting machines

'capabl':5 'civilian':11 'european':10 'grid':16 'hack':7 'infrastructur':12 'machin':19 'power':15 'relat':3 'us':8 'vote':18

Russia has deployed nuclear weapons in space

'deploy':3 'nuclear':4 'russia':1 'space':7 'weapon':5

'earth':8 'relat':3 'space':6 'space-to-earth':5 'weapon':9

New Space Race: The Russians are going to try to beat us to the moon this time

'beat':11 'go':7 'moon':15 'new':1 'race':3 'russian':5 'space':2 'time':17 'tri':9 'us':12

'earth':6 'earth-to-spac':5 'relat':3 'space':8 'weapon':9

'relat':3 'space':6,8 'space-to-spac':5 'weapon':9

Donald Trump references the US Space Force

'donald':1 'forc':7 'refer':3 'space':6 'trump':2 'us':5

A satellite was attacked/compromised/captured

'attacked/compromised/captured':4 'satellit':2

The threat violates the 1967 Outer Space Treaty

'1967':5 'outer':6 'space':7 'threat':2 'treati':8 'violat':3

It is related to a risk of violence through non-ballistic means

'ballist':12 'mean':13 'non':11 'non-ballist':10 'relat':3 'risk':6 'violenc':8

Key details will be leaked or announced by Russia before leak or public disclosure by US

'announc':7 'detail':2 'disclosur':14 'key':1 'leak':5,11 'public':13 'russia':9 'us':16

It will be leaked, without being declassified first, by the end of February

'declassifi':7 'end':11 'februari':13 'first':8 'leak':4 'without':5

It is an offensive military capability that could potentially be used against Ukraine without collateral damage in other countries

'capabl':6 'collater':15 'could':8 'countri':19 'damag':16 'militari':5 'offens':4 'potenti':9 'ukrain':13 'use':11 'without':14

Someone will be killed by the threat in 2024

There is a high risk of an unintentional catastrophic accident due to poor design or loss of control

'accid':10 'catastroph':9 'control':18 'design':14 'due':11 'high':4 'loss':16 'poor':13 'risk':5 'unintent':8

'anti':3 'anti-satellit':2 'kinet':1 'satellit':4 'weapon':5

A bill is proposed to allocate taxpayer dollars to begin production of countermeasures before March 31

'31':16 'alloc':6 'begin':10 'bill':2 'countermeasur':13 'dollar':8 'march':15 'product':11 'propos':4 'taxpay':7

Biden calls or meets with Xi to discuss the threat

'biden':1 'call':2 'discuss':8 'meet':4 'threat':10 'xi':6

The everyday life of the average American is impacted in a non-trivial way

'american':7 'averag':6 'everyday':2 'impact':9 'life':3 'non':13 'non-trivi':12 'trivial':14 'way':15

It will be discussed on the All-In podcast on Friday, Feb 16.

'16':14 'all-in':7 'discuss':4 'feb':13 'friday':12 'podcast':10

A member of Congress compares it to a science fiction book/movie/show

'book/movie/show':11 'compar':5 'congress':4 'fiction':10 'member':2 'scienc':9

It is related to nuclear missile defense systems

'defens':7 'missil':6 'nuclear':5 'relat':3 'system':8

Nikki Haley will make a public statement about it (within 72 hours of official White House release/confirmation of the threat)

'72':11 'haley':2 'hour':12 'hous':16 'make':4 'nikki':1 'offici':14 'public':6 'release/confirmation':17 'statement':7 'threat':20 'white':15 'within':10

Russia wants to deploy nuclear weapons into space

'deploy':4 'nuclear':5 'russia':1 'space':8 'want':2 'weapon':6

'kessler':5 'russia':1 'syndrom':6 'trigger':4 'want':2

Varda Space Industries: HIV Ritonavir Crystals In LEO

'crystal':6 'hiv':4 'industri':3 'leo':8 'ritonavir':5 'space':2 'varda':1

Eliezer Yudkowsky will state or imply that the weapon is an existential threat to civilization

'civil':15 'eliez':1 'existenti':12 'impli':6 'state':4 'threat':13 'weapon':9 'yudkowski':2

The threat is a new type of bomb with a higher yield than nuclear weapons can achieve (50 Mt)

'50':18 'achiev':17 'bomb':8 'higher':11 'mt':19 'new':5 'nuclear':14 'threat':2 'type':6 'weapon':15 'yield':12

Something has already occurred, and the default outcome will be a catastrophe if no human action is taken

'action':16 'alreadi':3 'catastroph':12 'default':7 'human':15 'occur':4 'outcom':8 'someth':1 'taken':18

Manifold users will think it is technically a serious threat but relatively boring, according to a poll

'accord':14 'bore':13 'manifold':1 'poll':17 'relat':12 'serious':9 'technic':7 'think':4 'threat':10 'user':2

It will be revealed that the Americans already possess the weapon themselves

'alreadi':8 'american':7 'possess':9 'reveal':4 'weapon':11

Donald Trump will speak positively about the threat or compliment the adversary for developing it

'adversari':12 'compliment':10 'develop':14 'donald':1 'posit':5 'speak':4 'threat':8 'trump':2

On March 31, 2024, @Joshua judges that the threat is or is likely to become an election issue

'2024':4 '31':3 'becom':15 'elect':17 'issu':18 'joshua':5 'judg':6 'like':13 'march':2 'threat':9

It’s ballotechnics/fusion weapon without fission

'ballotechnics/fusion':3 'fission':6 'weapon':4 'without':5

There will be 7+ opinion articles in the New York Times related to it in the week after 

'7':4 'articl':6 'new':9 'opinion':5 'relat':12 'time':11 'week':17 'york':10

It's nuclear-powered (as opposed to nuclear-armed)

'arm':11 'nuclear':4,10 'nuclear-arm':9 'nuclear-pow':3 'oppos':7 'power':5

'anti':5 'anti-satellit':4 'satellit':6 'system':7

It's still under development and not yet deployed

It is something that was already publicly known (before February 2024)

'2024':11 'alreadi':6 'februari':10 'known':8 'public':7 'someth':3

SNL will have a skit about it before April.

It will turn out to be fake or dramatically overblown

'dramat':9 'fake':7 'overblown':10 'turn':3

It is capable of creating a large EMP to take out huge area of satellites 

'area':13 'capabl':3 'creat':5 'emp':8 'huge':12 'larg':7 'satellit':15 'take':10

The Russian military has drawn up a plan for its use

'drawn':5 'militari':3 'plan':8 'russian':2 'use':11

It will be used to argue for increased funding of NASA

'argu':6 'fund':9 'increas':8 'nasa':11 'use':4

A congressional representative or government official will explicitly use it to argue for ongoing US aid to Ukraine

'aid':16 'argu':12 'congression':2 'explicit':8 'govern':5 'offici':6 'ongo':14 'repres':3 'ukrain':18 'us':15 'use':9

Russian Space Threat? 🚀