What is true about the "Serious National Security threat" that House Intel Chair Mike Turner is asking to declassify?
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resolved Apr 2
Resolved
YES
It's related to Russia
Resolved
YES
It is related to Nuclear weapons (Someone now has them, someone is now close to having them, etc)
Resolved
YES
A majority poll of Manifold users will agree that it is really is a "serious national security threat"
Resolved
YES
It is related to space
Resolved
YES
It will be known by April what country/group the threat is from
Resolved
YES
It's related to electromagnetic/electronic warfare
Resolved
YES
It’s related to a new weapon
Resolved
YES
There is a threat to satellites in orbit
Resolved
YES
It's related to space-to-space weapons
Resolved
YES
The threat violates the 1967 Outer Space Treaty
Resolved
YES
It is related to a risk of violence through non-ballistic means
Resolved
YES
It is related to nuclear emp
Resolved
YES
Russia wants to deploy nuclear weapons into space
Resolved
YES
It's an anti-satellite system
Resolved
YES
It's still under development and not yet deployed
Resolved
YES
It is capable of creating a large EMP to take out huge area of satellites
Resolved
N/A
The Russian military has drawn up a plan for its use
Resolved
N/A
It will be on the front page of the NYT in the week after it is declassified
Resolved
N/A
Mike Turner has asked to declassify it
Resolved
N/A
If the threat is declassified, Vladimir Putin will deny that it is true in a public appearance before April 1st

Free response, all options that I believe we know to be true before April resolve Yes, options we don't know to be true resolve No. Options can resolve yes or no early as we learn specifics.

Options where I find it too difficult to judge or which are poorly phrased resolve N/A.

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fwiw (given there are some options here for the severity of the threat): "Though Russia's pursuit of this particular capability is troubling, there is no immediate threat to anyone's safety," White House adviser John Kirby said.  "We are not talking about a weapon that can be used to attack human beings or cause physical destruction here on Earth."

https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-nuclear-space-weapon-a-risk-for-all-says-germany-space-command-chief/

There is a Manifold market related to it which is considered a "major sitewide event" by a majority of voters in a Manifold poll

I don't want to put a poll in people's feeds for this one, so let's do a preliminary comment like vote. I think this is an easy no but if I'm wrong then I guess I'll make a proper poll.

Like this comment if a market related to russian space nukes was a "major sitewide event"

Like this comment if no market related to russian space nukes was a "major sitewide event"

It will turn out to be fake or dramatically overblown

Not fake, and so far the poll results say it's a serious threat and I am inclined to agree with them.

@Joshua I submitted this answer, and although I haven't been following this news cycle much since then, usually it takes longer than a month or two for people to realize that something was "fake or dramatically overblown"

@MichaelWheatley Sure, but the criteria was always that we had to know something was true before April for it to resolve Yes so at best it'd be N/A

@Joshua oops 😭

I guess technically I'm a NO holder, but my apologies to all the YES buyers.

@Joshua maybe it's not fake, but it's still a nothingburger

@Odoacre How so? I think that the majority of poll responses saying it's a non-boring serious threat mean it's not a nothingburger.

@Joshua yeah, non boring and serious... and yet nothing has come out of it.

@Odoacre it was leaked to stoke anti-Russia sentiment to get a Ukraine funding bill passed

It will be leaked to the public (All major details, so no one is waiting for more information)

I don't think all major details have leaked.

We still don't know how far along in developing this Russia is, we don't know what kind bombs they want to send, we don't know the timeline for when this would happen if they go forward with it, etc etc etc.

There's a mention of cybersecurity or cyberwarfare

Cyberwarfare is the use of cyber attacks against an enemy state, causing comparable harm to actual warfare and/or disrupting vital computer systems.

I believe this would be actual warfare, not cyberwarfare. Probably resolves no.

There is a high risk of an unintentional catastrophic accident due to poor design or loss of control

Certainly possible, but I don't think we know this to be true.

A member of Congress compares it to a science fiction book/movie/show

Should be a no unless anyone has proof of this?

It involves a current armed conflict

This option is vague, but I don't think that the war in ukraine or any other specific conflict has been emphasized in the reporting on this so I am thinking it resolves "no".

Alright folks, end of the month is here so time to wrap up the market. We've had plenty of reporting from anonymous sources, but no full leaks. I've resolved a few more options just now, and made this poll to resolve the ones about a poll:


I haven't looked through all of the remaining options in detail yet, they're all pretty low but maybe one or two of these things happened and no one noticed! Get your final trades in now before resolution!

read this piece in NYT earlier and Russia Space Nukes mentioned - maybe this will bring a revival of this threat conversation

Russia wants to deploy nuclear weapons into space

Well Putin denied it but I don't believe him. Going to wait until the end of the month for this and most of the remaining options though, in the hope we learn more.

But don't interpret me not resolving this or other options early as uncertainty, I think it's pretty certain but not too much harm in waiting a bit longer since it was the original close date I set.

It will be declassified by the end of February.
bought Ṁ2,000 It will be declassif... NO

I think this answer and the "declassified by President's Day" one can resolve NO unless the small amounts of information that were released to the public during John Kirby's press conference count as a declassification.

@Arky Agreed, will do so and look through the other options

Why are people betting NO on it being leaked before the end of February, when CNN posted a detailed article about it?

@SteveSokolowski I think people are trading on different sets of assumptions with that question, and with you being the one who submitted it I don't want to contradict your own interpretation but I also said in other comments that I was holding "leak" and "declassify" to a high standard. Some details have leaked and some have been declassified, but we're still waiting for more information.

I'm going to resolve the leak before February option to N/A, but I'm editing the leak before april option to make this more clear.

It will be on the front page of the NYT in the week after it is declassified
bought Ṁ18 It will be on the fr... NO

This is the front page of the paper, not the home page of the website, right? They have all kinds of weird articles throughout the home page website, on stuff you normally expect the large respected western news outlets to not prominently report on e.g. gas shortages and criticism of US involvement in Ukraine.

@ooe133 It’s operationalized as

https://www.nytimes.com/issue/todayspaper/2024/02/07/todays-new-york-times for all the days in the week following the declassification. Being there at least one day out of seven would count.

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